Dear Matt, Inflation is strangling us. Is there anything you can say to make me feel better about it? Becky A.
Though it might come as a shock to readers, I’m not an economist. But while I don’t wish to brag, I did pull solid C’s in Econ 101 and 102 in college. Not only because I browsed the reading and diligently attended about a third of the classes, but because I cheated. Or as I like to think of it, I looked at the average variable cost of my study output (too high), then looked at the girl sitting in front of me, then considered our double coincidence of wants - I wanted her test answers, she wanted me to stop reading over her shoulder. Then I asked if she wouldn’t mind slouching a little so I could reach utility maximization. (Just a little light econ talk….hope I didn’t lose the layperson.)
Of course, me being an Econ C-student seems to put me in good company with Joe Biden, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of administration Baghdad Bobs who also seem to have little-to-no idea what’s going on, failing even, to acknowledge that we’re in a recession. Yellen instead opts to call it “a period of transition in which growth is slowing.” (As CNBC reported, she might technically still be in the definitional safe zone, even though every two-consecutive-quarters of our GDP dropping, as it just did, has caused the National Bureau of Economic Research to declare a recession, going all the way back to 1948.) If only Yellen’s economic insights were as keen as her gift for euphemism. In March of 2021, she infamously said that inflation would be “transitory.” And indeed, the inflation rate was in transit, from the 2.6 percent it was then, to the 9.1 percent it is now. (Maybe Yellen should start cheating off the girl who sits in front of her, too.)
But you already know the news is bad. That’s why you asked me to find some punch in the turd-bowl. I racked my brain to think of some upsides, and here’s what I could muster:
1. Perhaps, with all the discomfiting economic news, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will be inspired to speak less in public. Because every time she does, my consumer confidence falls. You know things are dire when I feel compelled to link to an RNC Research tweet at all, let alone twice in the same piece. I hate to baldly state that she’s bad at her job – too cruel – but I am starting to feel like I owe Sean Spicer an apology. Lesson: think things are bad now? Cheer up, because they can always get worse. Happiness is transitory, to paraphrase our Treasury Secretary.
2. Good news: now that the Fed seems invested in a series of interest rate hikes to curtail inflation, you might actually get a return on your savings account for a change! Though the bad news: since half the country might have to sell their kidneys to fill up their cars or to afford meat that doesn’t come out of a can (some retailers are now locking up SPAM in anti-theft cases), you probably no longer have a savings account.
3. Misery loves company, and we have a lot of it. It’s fun for Americans to blame their pet culprit(s): the Biden administration, Putin’s war of aggression, OPEC (who deserves our enduring scorn, just as a matter of habit), COVID, supply chain interruptions, a diminished labor force fat on stimulus money, Ron DeSantis (I actually don’t know anyone who is blaming DeSantis for inflation, but I like to blame the culture-war galoot for everything, just to stay in game shape for when he runs for president). Though as with most things, the sources of our woe are more complicated and varied than the gasbag punditry lets on. And the woe is not unique to us. Think 9.1 percent inflation is bad? Pew Research crunched the worldwide numbers for the last two years. Portugal and Spain are seeing well over ten times what their inflation rate was in the first quarter of 2020. Italy and Greece hover around 20 times the same. And Israel is topping off at 25 times their old inflation rate, which might, at least, make Prince Harry happy. (He’s not a big supporter of the Jews.)
Among the 44 nations Pew collected the numbers for, the United States, for its part, ranked 19th in climbing inflation. China, for its part, being the nation that kicked off this inflationary spike after introducing the world to COVID, ranked dead last. In 2021, China’s inflation rate was around .85 percent compared to the previous year. Meaning, China ought to be sending us reparations checks. I’m happy to take mine in Yuan, since my dollar doesn’t go very far anymore.
4. Finally, when I launched Slack Tide last October, a paid subscription costs five bucks per month or 50 bucks for the year. (Which for you math whizzes, breaks out to $ 4.16 a month.) And with all this inflationary pressure? It still costs the same! That means zero percent inflation. You’re welcome. Become a paid subscriber now.
But that’s about all the sunny-side I can come up with. You see why they don’t ask me to volunteer down at the suicide-prevention hotline. I will, however, take this to group and await the wisdom of the crowd.
Conversation starters: What the hell is happening, and how do we get out of this cycle? Where does this inflation train finally let us off? Who or what is primarily to blame? What do you miss buying most, besides gasoline and food? How have you changed your spending habits, or are you a one-percenter who maintains that the crisis is overblown, from the comfort of your villa in Ibiza? And why is it pronounced Ihh-beetha instead of Ihh-beeza? Can the rich no longer afford to get their speech impediments fixed?
I’ll let you go to it, but as always, be respectful. This is a civilized corner of the internet. Let’s keep it that way. No cursing, no abusing, no high-sticking.
Slack Tide by Matt Labash is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Well Matt, I’m a [blissfully] retired engineer. My obligatory Econ 101 was ironically taught by a visiting Chinese National Professor whose English was . . . [insert your own euphemism]. I remember something about guns and butter but little else.
As with a lot of issues you throw out for us, these are neither one dimensional nor partisan problems. Having said that, It seems to me energy independence would be one part of the solution to many of our economic problems, including inflation and GDP growth.
ps: I went fly fishing on the Yakima River in Washington state last month and thought of you as we landed (and released) blue ribbon rainbows.
To ensure you know how very much I value your writing, as I stood in Walmart salivating over that $5 can of Spam...I CHOSE YOU! Yes, I value you at least that much. 😍
as always in any crises period those that can least afford the ravage of inflation are the ones that suffer
the dearest. we need to stop subsidizing the chips industry as an example. intel ceo took home 179
million, yet his industry needs a subsidy to build some chip manufacturing facilities here in the u s a.
if all the politicians are against inflation and unfair taxes why do we have inflation and unfair taxes?
congress is in charge of fiscal policy. why can't we make them do their job? congress writes the tax code. do they treat the rich and the poor equally? of course not. forget the yellens and the winken blickens and nods and hold the congress's feet to the fire. maybe then we get closer to a nation that
I am well disposed to acquire this vehicle (since I cut my teeth on a standard transmission). I won't consider the 'half-tank of gas' as a legit fee though.
Let's talk this through. I am in Ohio but have a base of operations with fam in Virginia. Are you anywhere east of the Mississippi?
If Trosino duct-tapes you and keeps you in his basement (wouldn't be the first time), try to get to a keyboard and send out an SOS. We'll be here, and will send help.
I was an English major, so I would have been laughed out of the economics department in college. I know about supply and demand, and that there's a big central bank (I think it's called Gringotts, and it's run by trolls) that works with the Treasury to buy something, and then transfer something else to somebody, and then new money magically appears. And if we're really good, bobble-heads in suits will give us some of that money in checks.
But the magic somehow runs out, and then a run to the grocery store costs as much as my daughter's appendectomy.
What I learned in Econ 101 was the difference between needs and wants. The result of companies changing their prices is we all have to look closer at what we need and want. If it helps, if you need to adjust your subscription price, I'd be glad to pay as much as $8 a month. That's only $2 a week, $96 a year. HECK, round it up to $100 a year (I'm always glad to pay extra for round numbers.) On they other hand, the New York Times has raised my subscription to $660 a year -- up about 15% from about a year ago. And the only thing that is compelling me to keep it is that it gives me a record of my long streak for Wordle wins. I'm starting to think I don't need that so much. But I've come to need to read a couple of your articles a week. Thanks so much.
Good man, Curt! I was toying with that as a Slack Tide subhead - The New York Times For People Who are Disillusioned With the New York Times, but it's not really true, so I"m holding off. (For now.) But good luck with your Wordle streak. We've all got rabbits to chase.
I don't understand all this hubbub over inflation when such a simple and easy solution is right at hand, and we need only look a bit into the past to find it:
WIN buttons.
Anybody here remember those? Raise your hand. If your motor function still allows you to, that is. For the youngsters who are unfamiliar:
As low-tech, cheap, and as easy to produce at scale as pretty much any widget that any economics teacher ever spoke of in any economics class. And they can be quite fashionable and a boost to anyone's wardrobe!! I think Matt would look pretty darned cool with one tastefully pinned to his favorite fishing chapeau!!
Of course, they won't be quite as cheap to produce as they were back in the day, due to, uh, inflation. And there might be a supply chain issue or two. Or three. And of course, we'd need to find a way to get some of those slackers off unemployment and out their parent's basements to make the darned things.
But wait...we've got robots now. But I guess there might be a supply chain issue or three there as well, along with a labor issue if we want to make enough of them to make the buttons. But wait...we could just have some robots build the robots. Yeah, that's it. All we need now is for Congress to pass a bill pulling the trigger on a sawed-off double-barreled money gun pointed somewhere in the general direction of this button problem, along with stipulations that whatever corporate types who get the contracts won't overcharge - at least not excessively - for their services and product (they likely wouldn't do that, being as this would be such a patriotic endeavor and good for the country, but you never know) and it will no doubt not be too long before inflation is no longer a hot button issue, and we can all go back to bitchin' about something else that's perhaps not as frustrating as not being able to afford one's desired lifestyle...or maybe one's supper.
See...not really all that complicated. Don't know why these economists gotta' make it seem so hard. Maybe because some have got their eye on that Nobel Prize thingy and want to look a little extra smart. But you know, $1M+ just really ain't what it used to be, what with, uh, inflation and all. But I hear they throw in a pretty nice gold medal in the deal, and some of those guys probably prefer medals to buttons, as they are a bit more fashionable.
Everything old is new again, yes, Mike? I'm there . . . Inflation, the monster from our young adulthood is back. Just like bell bottoms or, as they are called now, pallazo pants.
Back then it was spurred by the great big population bulge called the baby boom of which I am a member. It was alot of people chasing a limited supply of the same thing: Levi jeans in our adolescence, apartments to rent in our single lives, homeownership in our married lives, Dockers when Levis were too uncomfortable for our expanding girth and now openings in assisted living centers. It's pretty simple. Put a bunch of people with 'needs' in a cage and start the bidding.
The answer, of course, is to opt out. Ease up on the gasoline, ride the bike, take the bus, eat vegetables. Overall, it's give up an unhealthy life style. The oil companies may have a conniption since we'll be ruining their evil plan.
Hi, Doc. Yes, old to new, back and forth, on and on. Sort of the ultimate rat race in a way.
Opting out for me has been in progress for a while. Have been dedicated for some time to becoming an economic drop-out to the greatest extent possible, since I'm lucky enough to be tipping the scale mostly on just the 'need' side these days and not much on the 'want', and my needs these days are pretty basic. But I have to admit, the cost of the Top Shelf stuff does kind of smart a bit!
Personally, I think my keen and simple solution to our current inflation problems is more than Nobel worthy, but I really wouldn't know what to do with the $1M+. Maybe buy a new truck? The one I hauled that hay home with last week is 22 years old. Looks a bit rough, since it's at the point that a good pothole or railroad crossing sheds another pound or so of rust (which does, however, improve the gas mileage due to having to haul less weight around...take that, Exxon!!). And it hasn't been washed or the cab cleaned out since I discovered years ago that using a garden hose on the inside doesn't work well with factory carpet and cloth seats. But she's still a runner, and I've grown sort of fond of the old gal. So, nah, probably not. The medal does look kind of sporty, though. But I no longer frequent many places that require me to dress up in my Sunday-go-to-meetings, and the guys at the local waterin' hole would just take it as braggin' if I walked in with it danglin' from my neck. So if the Nobel folks call, I guess I'll just take a pass.
Bell bottoms? Really? Owned a pair for about a minute back in 7th Grade. Went well with my high-top lace-up GI style work boots that were also all the rage in certain fashion circles where I was stylin' around back in the day. Couldn't figure out whether I was a Hippie or a Redneck for a while there. Still not sure most days.
Everything old is new again, indeed. Except for me. When I figure out how to solve that problem, maybe I'll go on and accept the Nobel that will most assuredly follow. After all, if I'm gonna' be around a lot longer than expected, havin' a little extra somethin' put away couldn't hurt, what with inflation and all...
I am looking for a truck like that for my son and his fam. He is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps who is retiring next year and just bought a 24 acre farm. He needs a truck like that to haul chicks, and ducks and goats and feed, and seed. He's at the Pentagon now but counting he days until he gets to jump into a pair of bib overalls and put his place in order. I can't think of a better life.
Well heck, Doc, tell your son to stop by my place on his way to the farm. I've got a 1-ton GMC with a 3-yard dump body sittin' out there that doesn't get a lot of use these days and just might fill the bill. Bought it to move dirt and compost around the property after I got tired of trying to hire someone to do it at a reasonable price, or even do it at all, regardless of the price. Turned out to be pretty good for hauling hay, bedding, feed, etc., as well.
It's 40+ years old, built when a truck was still just a truck and not a 'family vehicle' or testosterone booster. No computerized anything to be found anywhere on it... has an honest-to-God carburetor and is a genuine Green Acres rig. He really could hose out the cab if he ever felt the need, since the water would drain off what's left of the vinyl on what's left of the seat and flow right on out all those places you can see the roadbed through the bare steel the floor. Well, what's left of the floor anyway.
Been thinking about trying to find it a good home one of these days. Just a couple of caveats, though. The purchase price will only include a half a tank of gas, since that pesky and persistent leak in the top half of the tank makes filling 'er up not very economical or environmentally friendly. And one other thing...with a bit of a steep rear end (4.56) and a standard bulldog 4-speed manual trans with no overdrive, she's a real stump-puller, and she tells you that every second you open 'er up to 50 mph+ out on the open road. But if your son likes honest-to-God trucks, that'll be music to his ears.
Oh, and I guess I should mention the color. None of the standard red or black or white stuff. It's the same as the very popular color of the countertops and appliances in the kitchen of the home I bought 5 years after it was built back in 1980: avocado green. And a 'municipal' avocado green at that. Winner winner, chicken dinner. If he wouldn't be proud to paint the name of his farm on the doors of this ol' gal, well...
I knew I'd made a good choice on this one when my wife remarked upon seeing it in our driveway for the first time, "You don't really expect me to ever go anywhere with you in that, do you?" To which I replied, "No. I know you know how to drive a stick, so you'll be just fine driving it on your own." (Response pretty much unprintable here.)
I do wish you a clear path to the prize. Sometimes I think that we were the last generation who believed in the unlimited future as a birthright. Now everything seems so reduced for the generations (XYZ) and Millennials.
The upside is small is beautiful . . . and sustainable . . . and ultimately far more satisfying. Like hooking that slippery feller in the deep swirling pool of the river that reliably flows around us.
Having read a number of the comments, I have donned my word flack jacket. I too, ran through Econ 101 at the hands of one of the most profound monotonic speakers ever. Now had the subject been sex education, probably not so bad but Econ? I find economic policy during my lifetime to be reflexive rather than future looking. When events in the economy cause worry, our captains make adjustments to the course, if they can, and the storms abrewing are not to much to handle - like the bundled mortgage financial instruments unraveling a few years back. Not to mention, of course, the great depression, 1929 to 1942, which the US weathered with some severe belt tightening and a major World War. Let's hope today's inflation eases off without the need for such draconian action. If you want an easy primer in economic policy, look at the purchasing power of the dollar against real goods over the past 100 years and compare that curve to the curve of the National Debt over that same period. Notice anything? Yeah, the more we borrow, the poorer we get in actual purchasing power.
Finally, it is Matt's column. His views hold sway and his humor is, well, his - good (mostly hilarious), bad (rarely) or indifferent. I am a registered republican who votes near always democrat. Matt clearly struggles as I do with the Republicans but no need to give bad policy a pass regardless who is in office.
My Econ 101 professor told us the first class, don’t worry about studying for my test, you can’t pass it! Just remember, supply & demand, while holding up his money clip!
Culture-war galoot! Somebody just won the internets today!!!!
I was chuckling with a friend the other day (because who doesn't like to chuckle?) about gas prices. How come, for the last year, Biden and all his sycophants were saying the president doesn't control gas prices, and now that prices are coming down slightly, he's posting and boasting about bringing down the prices of gas?
And, while we appreciate inflation not hurting the subscription rate, Matt, it also hasn't affected the cost of a Mega Millions or Power Ball ticket. I statistically have a better chance at becoming a billionaire by playing the lottery, than I do reading your column. That's because I'm stupid at the maths, too. And your column is funnier.
You ask, "How come...he's posting...about bringing down the price of gas"? Do you truly not understand this up front, or is this one of those rhetorical questions? Either way, the answer is clear:
Given all the Biden bashing that the President has experienced over the last 18 months, with so little of it based on facts (e.g., "the president doesn't control gas prices."), it's incumbent on those who value the fact-based truth, to speak up to the contrary of the blame.
Does "the president...control gas prices"? I would generally agree that, no, he does not. On the one hand.
On the other hand, anyone who wants to attend all the efforts the Biden administration has undertaken, to do what it can to lower prices, well:
The prices are slowly coming down. Regardless of whether President Biden deserves any credit for it, or not.
____________________
Thank you for raising the question, regardless of your rhetorical or otherwise intentions.
Very disappointed in the cheap hit on Prince Harry. Very Tucker-esque. To take a picture from 15 years ago at a costume party and extrapolate that to being an anti-Semite is not only not funny, it's something the NY Post would do. You are better than that, I hope.
As far as the inflation thing, there are three factors at play:
Years of easy money from the fed to keep the economy propped up while the boomers were in their prime earning years and the tea party contracted the economy coming out of the great recession by insisting on insufficient stimulus because Obama. That's the main reason for the housing bubble.
The twin shocks of emergence from Covid lockdowns in most of the world (except China, which is making supply chain problems worse) and the war in Ukraine.
The asinine way that inflation is calculated by the government is distorting the actual rate of inflation. Right now, Americans have bought all the electronic toys and stuff that is actually cheaper than it used to be that they want, and are now all trying to buy the same perishable goods.
As someone else pointed out below, there is not much wage pressure on prices, contrary to breathless news stories about the "great resignation". The forward yield curves are predicting a return to 2-3%, or lower inflation within a year or 2. People just need to calm the F down.
I think Janet Yellen is over-parsing when trying to allay people's fears, but she is an academic and not the most plain-spoken person. Still, she's very smart, and i have faith in her and her team.
I agree with your view of Sec. Yellen. It was a great—and, of course, petty—loss, for Janet Yellen to be discarded as she was by the previous White House. And kudos to the Biden administration for taking advantage of her skills, yet again.
I agree with you on the "over-parsing," too. But we know the results when such an official needs to speak with words that will reach a deliberately negative audience. (I'm personally waiting for former Chairman Greenspan to publicly basing some of his economics views on the reading of Ayn Rand, back when he was in college! Hard to compare any subsequent Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman after that.)
____________________
I sleep better at night, these past 18 months, for believing that the U.S. is once again in comparably good hands.
Just a fan of fairness and not beating people up publicly for things they may or not have done, or things they may or may not believe just because you have a political axe to grind.
Apparently I'm not better than that, or I wouldn't have made the joke. But it was a joke, so you should calm down, Frank. Perhaps one in poor taste. But then, so is dressing up in a Nazi costume. If he does that, the guy's an attention jockey. And he hasn't slowed down in that department, now that he's just written an entire book in which he's expected to throw his family under the bus. Again.
And not sure you're not overestimating Yellen's smarts. When 3/4ths of the country was worried about inflation and could hear the train coming head-on from the dark side of the tunnel, she took a powder on it, playing it off as no big deal. That's a pretty big call to miss when the economy is your specialty. If an NFL handicapper predicted the Jets would win the Super Bowl after going 22-59 for the last five seasons, we wouldn't put too much faith in him.
I'm sure you did all sorts of dumb things when you were the age he was in the picture with the nazi costume. I know I did. I also know that it wouldn't be fair to assume I held vile beliefs based on those dumb things I did in college. And maybe the royal family needs to be thrown under the bus for some of the things they've done.
Yellen's position is an inherently political one, as opposed to Fed chair Powell's. She has a vested interest in trying not to scare people. Maybe she waited a little long to sound the alarm, but up until recently, a lot of other non-political economists were saying the inflation is transitory and will revert back to the mean soon. I think the truth is somewhere in between the Paul Volker "stagflation" emergency and the polyanna view of Yellen. It will go away, hopefully without driving the economy into a recession.
Here's hoping for a speedy end, and positive Ukrainian outcome, to Russia's invasion. One would need to be totally economics-indifferent to avoid curiosity about what such a result can have on global inflation, and how fast.
Let's hope you're right about it going away. Even if there's a long history of prices not dropping after a sustained jag like this one, and even if the inflation rate itself does. (Two different animals.)https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/07/05/inflation-prices-wont-drop-soon/7778227001/?gnt-cfr=1 And I'm generally pro not-scaring people. But there's a fine line between optimism and denial. Yellen sort of erred on the side of the latter. As evidenced by the 40-year inflationary high that followed her denial.
And yes, I did dumb things in college. Still do, sometimes. But even at my very dumbest, I can honestly say I never thought it'd be a swell idea to go to a party in a Hitler costume. Again however......it was a joke. Shouldn't be taken literally or seriously.
It's a year-over-year comparison. Don't ascribe a trend to a small set of data. I agree it is not ideal, but not a long term trend. Demographic changes will help flatten the long term curve. If we don't do something about immigration, the US is going to be Japan within 10 years, where an aging population who doesn't buy anything but health care and basics forces the economy into perma-recesssion.
From my comfortable upper middle class perch, I think Americans pay too little for a lot of things, because the external costs of their consumption are not paid by the user. Things like electricity, gasoline, alcohol, and junk food are far too cheap in my opinion. It encourages consumption that projects costs onto others that had no say in whether you consumed them or how much you consume. But we think driving an oversized truck/SUV you have no practical need for many miles on a daily commute while eating Big Macs is a birthright.
I'm sure Harry thought his Hitler costume was a joke, too. I agree it's never a good idea to dress up as Hitler. But what about blackface? or Klan robes? I've heard somewhat militant women fuss about men in drag, even bad amateur drag because they think it denigrates women. I agree we need to have a better sense of humor about a lot of things and not be offended by everything, but that goes both ways.
Yes, I understand it's a year-over-year comparison. But maybe you're not understanding my point, illustrated in the piece I sent along. (Which was paywalled, my bad.) Which is that even when our 9 percent inflation rate drops to say, 6 percent, prices are still high as hell, they've just ceased increasing at the same rate. (Though they're still increasing.) And many of those prices are here to stay - according to the experts cited. And good luck with wages catching up to that runaway train, since there's been a 3.9 percent decrease in real wages, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So I'm not certain what country you're inhabiting at the moment, but in the one I live in, we're paying more than enough for alcohol and gasoline. Perhaps not as much as the Europeans (as commonly cited), but most Europeans also get cradle-to-grave subsidized healthcare and at least 4 paid vacation weeks per year. The average American doesn't, so they need cheap gas to drive to the liquor store, in the interest of pain-numbing. And as for it not being a long-term trend, as one Wharton finance professor said in that piece: "“Once core prices go up, generally they don’t come down. In the last 40 to 50 years, we’ve never seen deflation in core goods. Most durable goods and services don't really come down in price.”
I wasn't terribly offended by Harry. I made a throwaway joke. Which we shouldn't explore any further, on EB White's principle that overanalyzing jokes is like dissecting a frog: "Few people are interested and the frog dies of it."
If anything gets thrown away it should be Harry, not your joke.
But Matt, I too am very disappointed...with your cheap hit on the Jets. Two strong drafts, some good free agent signings, best pass rusher returning from injury...and now I'm not sure I can even root for them ever again after what you wrote...
HAH! [*SQUEAK!*] [BMM-BMM-BMM!] IS THIS ON? CAN EVERYONE HEAR M[*SQEAK!*] [POP!]
Hi. Longtime caller, first-time listener. Thank you for this town hall. I'm here to tell you that Donald Trump set us free. Not only has the inflationary pressure that pumped up his ego spilled over into the economy. That louder-than-life ambulatory priapus of a man (and I use the term loosely) has finally given rise to prices on everything under the sun. Yes, I know. I said "rise." [snort]
Speaking as another boring old white male from Central Redneck County, and on behalf of my fellows, Donald Trump has set us free. He's taught us that we're equally entitled to our grievances. And he did so without teaching. Because one of the primary tenets of Redneckhood is to shun teaching and education of any kind. If you learn anything, keep it to yourself and don't show off. Or we'll kick your ace, get it?
Me and my pro-Trump fellers would privately like to take pity on the rest of America for the offensive language, the crude banality of his cruelty--but we so much enjoy inflicting more of the same. It's fun! So funk your feelings!
You people in the eeeelite meeeedia caused this inflation! It's all your fault. More importantly, it's not our fault. We voted for Trump to tear it all down and dump it into a drainage ditch, uh, swamp. And if you guys can have your grievance culture--*so can we, Buster!*
Anyhoo. Thanks for the laughs. Is they any free tacos left at the buffet? Is it Toozdy? [*FFFSZHTTS*] here, take it [SSSKKRRTSH!]
On the other hand Dr. Deb, apple of my eye, Steve's being a deliberate prick, so you shouldn't make him feel good about being a jerk-off. Attendance isn't compulsory, and if he doesn't like it, that's fine. All taste is subjective. I'll let it slide. But if he poisons my well again in public, he's going to find out real quickly what getting taken to the woodshed looks like. My house, my rules. I argue with people of goodwill all the time in this space, who have actual disagreements with me. But I don't put up with pricks, who are just being pricks for the sake of it. The internet is full of those, so he has plenty of other places to go. And I will happily show him the way.
Great to see your true colors, Matt. Don't forget to have your wife do all your dirty dishes so you have time to catch your fish. Keep on with your slacking, but count me out.
Aug 1, 2022·edited Aug 1, 2022Liked by Matt Labash
I made about the same grade as you did on introductory economics at UNC, but what's happening, and has happened over the last 40+ years doesn't need a practitioner of the dismal science of economics nor, as Harry Truman requested, a one-armed economist to explain. (Remember that he tired of the economists who droned on, "On the one hand...On the other hand"?) Having lived through the last inflationary cycle, I know we've been through worse. In 1982, inflation was 6.16 percent, and joblessness reached a post-World War II high — 9.7 percent of the labor force. Ronald Reagan had a 41% approval rating in August, 1982, the lowest ever in a Gallup Poll for a president early in his term. More for a look back and a look forward. https://jimbuie.substack.com/p/inflation-is-at-a-40-year-high
You should have been my friend. You wouldn't have had to pull a muscle in your neck to get a glimpse of my answers. I would have taken my test and then switched with you and taken yours too. I did this for my BFF in college and sometimes for my college roommate freshman year, who was also a good friend. I was an English major so no expertise in econ, but I blame all the COVID aide and waiting too long to raise interest rates. And Title 42. We need those workers back.
Would that as much effort would go in to accurate economic planning and forecasting as has gone into redefining the parameters for a recession.
In another highly complicated economic question, what’s with the victory lap on a $.25 drop in gas prices (against a $1.30/gallon increase BEFORE the war in Ukraine)? If you campaign to end the fossil fuel economy, you should be apologizing for giving a reprieve to Big Oil.
Distraction, Matt! I thought for a second there that you were using inflation/Karine/Biden et al to distract from the news about Gaetz/Stone. Then I realized chances are good you didn’t read HCR’s and important writing about the “hot mic”. But the definite slide into the R’s talking points is starting. Is that to ease us into seeing your true position in time for an election year? Curiouser and curiouser…
Yeah, right! If you stacked all my criticisms of the Trumpsters up against those of the current administration, it's running about 10-1 against the Trumpsters, and they're not even in office, even if they refuse to acknowledge it. Ask a Trumpster if you don't believe me.
Yes, ma’m we do. I voted for Trump, twice, and yet, despite the “mainstream” opinion that we are all knuckle dragging deplorables we can be quite discerning in our literary choices. Your disdain is welcome, as it is precisely the reason Trump won (once) and why someone perhaps a bit more genteel but with the same policies will no doubt win again. Good day.
I presume nothing, your derision was quite clear, which is the herd mentality toward Trump voters. In my neck of the woods to say “ bless your heart” as a preface to something is considered condescending, further evidence of your disdain. I bear you no ill will, it’s just politics, after all.
I not only know very little ( I did take Econ 101 in college and got a A , but, I promptly forgot most of it after the tests...lol) about economics, I find it incredibly dry and boring...
Gas prices have come down $2.80 a gallon here, so, not back to where it was, but, miles better. The alast time I filled up it was $8 less than the time before.
Food prices have gone up, but, I am no stranger to cutting back on some of my champagne tastes when needed...lol...where it has really hit me is something I like/want, but isn't a necessity...entertainment , and subscriptions...
Also, some of my utilities went nuts, I redid my cable/internet /phone one as a result...brought it down about $91 and got everything I really needed.
Maybe I am just disinclined to get upset about financial woes, been there, done that, several times, both economy wise ( inflation and recession ) and personal not in my control events.
While I wish it wasn't so, wishing doesn't make it happen...lol..I survived the other times and hopefully will survive this time too. ( I was never as poor as I was during and before the cancer/chemo, and it sucked, but, maybe I am just a ridiculously stoic sufferer?...lol)
Cue to This Fella in a dream induced by recent medical procedure: - He dreams of a world where Politicians will just talk the truth and not be so concerned about re-election. Americans would pay attention to quarterly profits during these inflationary times, not just in their 401ks, oh wait, weren't oil companies divested?
Oof, time for vital signs again?
Dream scenario brought on by Oxycodone and Tylenol.
What I miss buying: Not me….but my two millennial daughters want to buy homes but have given up for now. There’s NO WAY inflation is at 9.1% because of the lame way they compute housing, owner’s equivalent rent….not what people actually pay for rent. It is probably more like 15-20%.
# 4 was masterful transition to luring in paid subscribers, well played sir. As far as pronunciation, how about Aix en Provence, that's tripped up a few would be francophiles of my acquaintance. I've avoided trendy Spanish islands so far.
I JUST PAID 6.79 FOR A BAG OF FAMILY SIZED TOSTITOS!!!! I would’ve given them to the cashier but I was at a self checkout and didn’t want to create a kurfuffel.
As long as there is no wage/price spiral, which there doesn’t appear to be, then inflation is self correcting. It’s a shame that it corrects itself by making you broke... or more gently put reducing your disposable income. With the Fed also reversing QE and raising interest rates at a hefty clip, my guess is inflation is running at target by year end.
A counter- counterpoint: Admittedly anecdotal evidence here, but my company is up 50% on starting pay for unskilled/ semi-skilled labor versus 2020, and this is in a county that has historically been in the 15-20% range for unemployment. Even with this we still have 200% annual turnover, and this is with good benefits and good working conditions. Others in the industry are seeing the same, so while it might not yet be in a spiral, wage increases are with us- at least in our little corner of the empire. There is a definite bidding war going on to get employees who will consistently show up to work 40 hours a week.
Yes - we see the same in my industry for those same areas. But salaried folks got a 3.0% pay bump. So I agree with you completely, but when you look at the full aggregate data across the whole economy, we’re still seeing real disposable income declining and that should start to take inflation down.
Now on the labor shortage side I am more pessimistic - it’s really a shame. The US economy is shrinking partly just because it can’t staff and that high turnover is a killer for productivity (constantly training etc.). All while we’re busy turning away people who are literally knocking down the door to come work here. It’s a spectacular own goal!
The lack of a truly functioning green card system perfectly illustrates how political grandstanding in both parties has hurt this country. If you want to work here, get a business sponsor (there are plenty of legitimate brokers already doing this), send some basic personal info to allow a security/ criminal records check, and if all is well there, check in with your sponsor where you have the same employment rights as everyone else- no below market wages, no cash payments- and pay your taxes. If you leave that sponsor, find another and update your whereabouts. If you keep your nose clean and stay off the public dole for enough years, then we can talk about permanent citizenship.
Maybe Quality TV is now too good to part with for eight hours a day. I finally just picked up on Ozark, and I have about 43 more episodes to go. So I suppose paying the mortgage can wait......
You’ve hit on it - once Netflix cracks down on password sharing and everyone finishes Stranger Things people will get back to work and the economy will be saved.
Not sure in your case though, once you’re done with Ozark you’re going to have Josh Hawley’s new book “Manhood” to read.
So I'm genuinely curious from both of you: What, in your estimation, is causing the drastic labor shortage nearly a year after enhanced benefits and extended unemployment dried up? (Besides, say, mothers who've exited the workforce.) It wasn't THAT much scratch. What are so many people doing for money that they have the option to not work, when all I ever read is how the average American doesn't have two nickels to rub together in savings?
Can I pipe up here? Our system worked fairly well as a workforce/employment engine until our skills requirements became much more complex. As the needs of employers exceeded the planning options for young people (most kids say they want to be 'firemen' or teachers . . . something they can see and related to). But envisioning becoming a coding specialist for defense systems is not a readily available option.
So our system is 'broken' and we don't adequately prepare young people for developing the goals that may yield an opportunity that will carry them to a higher level of skill and then expanded job options. Craft type jobs like plumbing, electrician work, building trades are tightly controlled by the profession. Many young people end up in basic, basic positions with the hope of 'something' happening. (You don't just go down to the plant and get a job with dad when you graduate.) They stagnate in spots with no skills development, no path to higher income, no post-secondary education. Their lives begin to spin out of control through normal kid-type missteps like trouble with law enforcement (me, raising my hand) or having babies. (Not that having babies is a misstep but timing is everything.)
It's hard to explain to young people how difficult adulting is. Many of them are shocked at what is expected and there are archetypes out there now in our popular literature and cinema that reflect our current status. The male is the Jackass mook that marries and fails as a husband and father and clings to prolonged adolescent: the great American screw-up. The female is the sexy young girl who marries too soon with hopes of the picket fence but ends up single mom, bitter but determined: the noble woman warrior.
I have seen many examples of both as a counselor at a Community College and they are endearing as they juggle and keep plugging away. Many are on second or third chances and most triumph but it's no way to run an economy.
Again, I’m only commenting on what I see, and at the risk of sounding like an old codger yelling at the kids on my lawn, the workers just entering the labor force are lacking basic skills needed for long-term employment, things like showing up for work, on time, and working a full day, or even calling a supervisor to let them know they will be late or absent. Young workers seem to have a lot of doctor and lawyer appointments that prevent a full day’s work, and have little or no concept or concern of the impact their absence has on production. They are also constantly on the lookout for opportunities to make claims in the areas of workers comp and equal employment opportunities- no matter how nebulous the factual basis for a claim might be.
Beyond that, I think even with extra and extended benefits ended, the regular ol’ benefits are still very competitive against a $15/job, especially if there are multiple generations sharing housing. In our state there are minimal requirements for job applications in order to maintain unemployment benefits, and we have had applicants tell us up front that they don’t want the job, but would we please make sure and verify that they applied. In short, it has become easier and easier to game the system, and it looks like the upcoming generation is pretty savvy in this area.
As to the lack of savings, I wouldn’t doubt that, but this group of undesirables/ unemployables operate strictly on a day to day outlook, and looking at the trend even pre-Covid of unemployment and other benefits being almost reflexively extended for months on end, they can’t really be blamed for assuming that they’ll be taken care of. Sorry for all the negative waves here, but it’s frustrating.
I don't dispute you, Simple Man. This is why I ask people in a position to know when I get a chance (i.e., small businessmen, or even large businessmen, or businesspersons, I suppose we should say.) But if employees were milking the unemployment system (and there was a lot of legitimate non-milking when lockdowns first kicked off, 3/4ths of America was shut down and people were legitimately suffering), they already came to the end of that rope, no? You can't keep extending unemployment forever. Every state has a finite amount of time you can stay on, and if you got on in the early days of the pandemic, that time has long passed. And if you've already claimed it once, after getting laid off from your job, you have to get another job, then get laid off from it, too, to receive unemployment again. And even if you manage that, chances are you ain't getting much of a payout, as it probably tends to the low-end scale. You won't have much work history, and enhanced payouts are a thing of the past. But this I believe, and it actually made me laugh hard: "Young workers seem to have a lot of doctor and lawyer appointments that prevent a full day’s work." Lawyer's appointments!........
Still, I believe the children are our future. If only because the rest of us will be dead, and the future won't have a choice.
Not debating the need for at least the first round of Covid relief at all, and you are right in that there are diminishing returns as this plays out, but refer back to Exhibit A: One Day Horizons. No sane person would see this as a 20 year plan, but I think the game plan is to stay on benefits as long as possible, and then work just long enough to ‘reset’- and maybe some undefined better thing will materialize in the meantime.
Great question. You should go back after all these years and ask the professor to officially adjust your grade to a B-. I’m not an economist either (engineer with an MBA) - but the performance of the Fed makes me wish I had gone into economics. I’d love to be that wrong and be able to not just cling to my job but still strut around all important like. Nice work if you can get it.
This year and next are peak years for the baby boomer generation to reach retirement age, and in my company we’ve seen a lot of folks retire a little early. We’ve needed to add workers versus the 2019 baseline to deal with supply chain issues, etc.
Still, I agree with you that it is very odd. The working age population is still rising and I would have expected the total workforce to be over the 2019 level as a result. But the workers just aren’t there, and I haven’t seen a good explanation for that anywhere.
Ibiza is pronounced ee-beeth-ah because it is the name of a Spanish island, not an English one. Spanish people speak with Spanish pronunciations. Grathias. And yes, that's the way you pronounce "thank you" in Spain Spanish...but not in Mexican Spanish.
Would someone actually look up the facts and figures of Q1 and Q2 PROFITS of big oil. The price of a barrel of oil has been well over $100.00 numerous times, but Shell Oil and their ilk have NEVER had 300% profits in one quarter over the same quarter the previous year. Can you pronounce profiteering. Big Oil stocks have gone up over 50% this year, while the overall market has dropped over 20%. But, give Shell a break. They have to be reponsible to their stockholders. Btw...what are stock buybacks? Wink.
They have also not seen demand accelerate as it did coming out of the pandemic. I would remind you that the price of oil a little over 2 years ago was negative, as in worth less than nothing. Not sure what business you’re in but I’d like to see your reaction to price swings of that nature, while all the while the administration was demonizing you and your product as inherently evil.
Read any substantial articles from Q1 and you will learn that big oil did not attempt to increase supply to meet demand, therefore their prices skyrocketed. Shell oil, in Q1 and Q2 made more profits than any quarters in their 115 year history. Shell's response to requests to increase oil production was met with the answer: They needed to be responsive to their shareholders. The absolute peak price of a barrel of oil occurred in June 2008 with the highest inflation-adjusted monthly average crude oil price of $168.75 / barrel, whereas pp barrel today is 104 USD. Gas prices in 2008 were around $3 a gallon. All of these price increases in 2022 came after big oil made up for the losses of Russian oil. Nothing increased gasoline prices more than gasoline companies. Nothing. And I don't know where you get off using histrionic terms like demonizing and evil. This is not a theological debate. This is simply greed. You know the mantra - Greed is good.
There is ample evidence of price gouging, including a March report from the Dallas Federal Reserve, which found that 59 percent of oil company executives identified “investor pressure to maintain capital discipline” as the chief explanation for why US-based oil companies aren’t increasing production in order to relieve shortages and reduce gas prices for Americans.
By the way, Berkshire Hathaway is buying a lot of big oil stock right now.. Coincidence? nah.
I don’t want to get in a pissing match with you. Just using the phrase “ big oil” is, to me, an indication that you dislike oil companies in general. Check out the market caps of tech companies if you want to see what “ big” is, Exxon Mobil is a runt in comparison. I assume you know what price signaling is as it relates to the stock market. If the feds express an antipathy toward you and your product and use the power of the government to curb the sale and use of that product, then you’re in a death spiral. Can you blame them for capitalizing on what is most probably a temporary spike in prices?
Conoco Phillips, Exxon, Shell, did not respond to the fed's pressure. In fact, they gave the feds the finger. They said, we are going to going to buy back stocks and give dividends to our stockholders, and that's that. By the way, big oil is a good buy on the market today and in the foreseeable future. That's not judgment, that's just math. By the way, big oil is a term I use for multi billion dollar oil companies, unlike Marathon...just shorthand.
It's only the S sound in the middle of the word that gets the 'th' treatment. Go to Barthalona sometime. You'll here it constantly. And it's not just Catalan, it's all Spain. I say this with all sintherity.
The letter “s” is never pronounced “th” in Spain, wherever in the word it is.
The letters “c” and “z” always get lisped. To confuse things further, the letter “d” is pronounced “dth” when it’s the last letter of a word, like Madridth or thiudadth (ciudad).
Oh, and “y” and “ll” are hard J’s (Joe soy) but “j” Is pronounced roughly like you are hacking up a hairball
The SOUND of s, in the middle of a word. i.e. Servicio = restroom in Spain. It is pronounced sayr veeth ee oh. In Mexico, restroom is banos (bahn yos)...as most people know. In Spain, Gracias, which has an S sound in the middle of the word, is pronounced grahth ee ahs. It's the S sound. Sorry for any confusion. La Gordita didn't read the above response correctly.
Matt Labash writes: “Of course, me being an Econ C-student seems to put me in good company with Joe Biden, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of administration Baghdad Bobs who also seem to have little-to-no idea what’s going on, failing even, to acknowledge that we’re in a recession. “
I don’t know you, Matt, well-enough to know if you’d care, but your formulation seemingly comparing yourself to our country’s dominant practical economists, is an effect that many use to undermine opponents with an admittedly inadequate basis for doing so. You manage both to punch yourself up (putting yourself in substantial company) and to punch the others down (such as by leading readers to imagine Janet Yellen looking over someone’s shoulder in an Econ class, trying to cheat).
The late Rush Limbaugh (among others ) perfected this trick. If you listen to the post-Limbaugh iteration, Travis and Sexton, you’ll hear similarly dismissive statement about, say, any Democrats and also about, say, all Democrats.
“Bless Yellen’s and Powell’s and, God Help Us, the sitting President of the United States’ pointed, little heads. They mean well, but come on! They’re Democrats! Now how about a word about MyPillows®.”
It’s a damn “trick,” that works for comedy, but currently plays an outsized role in undermining credentials and Credibility, and thereby enhances a who-can-you-trust-ness throughout our society.
“Heck! We might as well trust Matt Labash as these credentialed others, because they’re no better than he is, and he knows nothing about economics, so they know nothing about economics, and a situation with improving job numbers is a Recession, the label is what matters, and who gives a darn about anything else? Inflation is globally systemic, not a domestic phenomenon, and Chairman Powell puts his pants on, one leg at a time, same as me, so I don’t even know what a Recession actually is, but it shows the Democrats don’t know what they’re doing, four-thirds of the time, and Hillary’s emails. Libtards! Sheesh!”
Your writing here, as always, is well-done and clever. Your base point disappoints, in terms of seeking to help make our divided country a better place.
____________________
I’d have said this privately, but (A) I’m not sure I know how to do that on the Internet and (B) I’m hard-pressed to imagine that even such a thought-ful person as You is going to give much thought to This.
Or......you left out another possibility: that Labash - much as it pains him to refer to himself in the third person - doesn't know what he's talking about inflation-wise AND neither does Janet Yellen. Sometimes, experts are dismissed reflexively because it's become cool to be a rube who prides himself on his rube-ishness (see Travis and Sexton) and to distrust The Establishment, whatever the establishment is anymore. (Travis and Sexton are the establishment when it comes to being fake Rush Limbaughs.) But sometimes, it's because the experts are legitimately and demonstrably not very smart about the thing they're supposed to be expert at. Which in Yellen's case, is the economy. She missed the call, and by a lot. Not that she'd have been able to head it off anyway. But if you can't even correctly diagnose the problem, there's almost zero chance of fixing it.
Curiouser still Mattie, is your definitive take on an expert that you may, or may not, share a hairstyle with but don’t let us in on your source…perhaps it’s the fine folks over at Faux…
I don't want to be mean, which you are encouraging (shame on you), but if I shared Janet Yellen's bowl cut, I would reach straight for the shears. Better bald than bowl'ed. That's how I was raised.
An interesting point (to my mind) is who gets my point and who doesn't, and why.
During the pandemic, with my SiriusXM lapsed and desperate for some talk radio, I tuned to the local station that used to carry Rush Limbaugh. That's how I happened on Travis & Sexton. As I began listening, they sounded sensible to me—using a form of soft-talk-insulting-anything-on-the-Left. It always leaves listeners convinced they join Travis/Sexton/Limbaugh in knowing more than the Liberals, the Democrats, or the Fed Chair & Treasury Secretary and—God love 'im!—the Democrat president. Bless his heart.
Matt's passage (that I quoted to kick off this discussion) gave me a first glimpse of how it works.
In what conscientious world would a lay-person (with a sub-par education in economics) make the kind of bass-ackwards comparisons we hear on Fox, on AM-Talk Radio, and from Mr. Trump?
No wonder that, intellectually, Americans are coming up short.
____________________
Matt (per his response) seems not to get it: "Labash...doesn't know what he's talking about inflation-wise AND [ergo] neither does Janet Yellen." I don't know how to teach someone what is deceptively flawed in such a formulation.
But at least, after all these years of fighting against the flawed reasoning that elected Mr. Trump and led up to the 1/6/2021 coup attempt and beyond—at least, I found a clue. Courtesy of our host, Matt Labash.
____________________
Thanks, Nancy, for what you picked up on, here. It drew me back. I have learned something substantive as a result.
With luck and more hard work, maybe we will finally start getting through to those who seem so limited in interest or in capabilities to be reached.
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
—
I could not figure it out. I'd have been unable to explain (espc
No, Gozo, that wasn't my point. My point was that just because I, an amateur, don't know what I'm talking about doesn't necessarily confer legitimacy on someone who was appointed to a position that they're clearly bad at. (I.E., Yellen.) So not "ergo," but "additionally" would be the more precise way of stating it. And without seeming peevish to you and Nancy, I would also submit that there's plenty of people who stand up and cheer when you criticize your "own side" (I don't really have a side anymore, but I came up right-leaning, before the right turned into a bunch of foaming-at-the-mouth anarchists), but the second you level even a blatantly obvious criticism of their side, they think you're carrying water for your old team. Again, that's not the case here. I know that the right lies all the time about all manner of things, from democracy to the Biden administration to you name it. And I have written that explicitly and repeatedly. But even seditionist blind pigs find acorns now and then. And so when they criticize this administration for being weirdly out of touch with what's going on economically, or at least feigning out-of-touchness since it's in the administration's political interest to pretend that we're not in recession and/or that inflation isn't as damaging as it is, well, that's a totally legitimate criticism. What I'm really against is being a slave to binary thinking. And thinking either side has a monopoly on truth when both sides have proven to be utterly corrupt and inept and self-interested is telling yourself a story that should not be filed in the nonfiction section.
Matt, esteemed host, I do not know what to say, right off hand.
Here, you repeat the same quality of point: "....just because I, an amateur, don't know what I'm talking about doesn't necessarily confer legitimacy on someone who was appointed to a position that they're clearly bad at. (I.E., Yellen.)"
I can't teach you to see what you cannot find how to see for yourself. I have no clue as to a solution.
Via some of your posts, I value the opportunity to notice some things, and to do what I can to explicate them for a wider understanding.
In the latter effort, I continue to fall short. Falling short makes the whole experience of striving to communicate on Social Media feel like a vain effort.
I see this vanity, on the one hand, and yet I see nothing else to try, to help right our democracy. You and I share this ambition, at least to some extent. So I can value your own efforts. It means a good deal.
You are in good company with this sort of view. I appreciate your considered thought, particularly the way you restate my point in your opening sentence.
Thanks, too, for the courtesy of your response, Matt. You put words together well. I wish I could do the same!
Don't be so hard on yourself, Gozo. You do just fine with words. And besides, in the inflationary future, we won't be able to afford to use words. Too many pixels. We will speak only by emoji.
They overlearned the lessons of 2008, which were themselves an underlearning of a lesson from...somewhere else probably. Also, economics is hard, which is why everybody falls back on their tried and true priors (it's all the communists'/business barons' faults!). This is probably gonna make the MMT crowd less powerful, so there is that. For me personally, the counterfactuals, where we threw too LITTLE money around are a strong argument as to why things could be worse if we did that again. I am now eating more beans, which I had been meaning to get around to. This inflation situation could really end up crimping the market for heart-surgeon yachts. That always stings the most.
ah! That too yes thanks. As for the windows, pretty soon the digestion system gets bad without the beans. I make a huge all-week-vat of slop. A few weeks in, now it's the other way around, no beans? Open a window.
We’re doing what we’re going to do … inflation or not. Right now we’re building a house. You can imagine how that’s going, given that we bought undeveloped land and need a well, septic field, fencing, well house, and storage building in addition to the house itself. Is this wise, you may ask? Of course not! And yet we bulldoze forward.
I've never taken a single course in economics, but I don't feel that should preclude me from chiming in on this conversation. With my limited knowledge in how the economy works, I struggle with distinguishing a recession from a depression. All I know is that either situation means we have money problems. That said, I'm married to a man who, since our marriage in 1974, has been predicting the next Great Depression. I've always made a bit of fun of him, even to the point of storing a bunch of clothes in the 70s and 80s and labeling them "Depression Clothes." Now it looks as if I might be hauling that box from the attic, although I'm sure none of those clothes still fit. It has taken almost fifty years, but it looks as though I'll have to admit my husband was right. I hate it when that happens.
Who cheated on the exam, not me. It was the French 200 exam, I didn't know French for " umbrella ". I nudged Jim sitting across from me, to ask. Jim moved his sweater, which was hiding the dictionary. He flipped through it... and told me " la parpluie". Did I cheat ? Did Jim cheat ? Did I make Jim cheat ?
Karine Jean Pierre may not be great but she'd have a hard time following the woman who was perhaps the best press secy in my old lifetime. So I cut her some slack (and don't listen to her).
But Sean Spicer owes us ALL an apology -- and will forever owe us more of an apology than we get even if we got one (and he got self awareness)!
Re: Inflation -- I don't even play an economist in my own living room, but I do think the primary reason for the fact I cannot afford food or gas is GREED -- have you SEEN the IMMENSE profits of the oil and gas industry, Bezos, Musk, etc etc etc the past two years and now!!??!! It is also the war in Ukraine and the incredible mishandling of the pandemic and probably bad advisors in a couple of White Houses. But Greed and Politics (and the Politics of Greed) are literally killing actual people (as opposed to the rich and politicians).
I second your, "Greed" diagnosis. The facts clearly point that direction, but so much obfuscation from pundits and pols already jockeying for re election and a media addicted to creating drama for clicks.
John, I'm fairly certain your question is disingenuous and undeserving of being address, but what the hey: So simplified, yes they are less greedy. Might be due to pressures applied elsewhere, influence and yes perhaps supply and demand do have a minor effect too. You simply can't argue with the record, record, record profits Big Oil and Gas are reporting, as required by law, to their shareholders. I feel certain that if they could hide how greedy they were being they would. Cowboy Capitalism is Greedy - feed the greed. Which of the 7 deadly sins is that?
volumes? I look at this forum as a respectful platform to exchange ideas and differences. I can go to twitter for cryptic quips. So, you're saying you agree with me then. Thank you.
It is worth bearing in mind that inflation creates winners as well as losers. Consider the case of a guy who is paying one third of his monthly income on his mortgage. As long as his salary or his pension has COLAs, given enough inflation he winds up paying only a fourth of his income for that purpose. Obviously he's a winner. But without COLAs he's of course a loser.
Regardless of the literal cause of salary increases (COLA seems to have limited application in this regard; maybe some specific industries, the "of which" of which, I do not know) (What was I saying? I got lost in my own little bit of minuscule wit. Oh, yes!), if you get income increases while your mortgage rate stays the same, yes, you do benefit from inflation. (And I'm not an economist, either.)
--------------------
My comment is admittedly not profound. The true reason I'm posting here is to ask if we're talking about Balzac or Saroyan, or someone else, in relation to the Human Comedy?
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
[8/6/2022: Edited to capitalize some literary titles in my last line.]
Well Matt, I’m a [blissfully] retired engineer. My obligatory Econ 101 was ironically taught by a visiting Chinese National Professor whose English was . . . [insert your own euphemism]. I remember something about guns and butter but little else.
As with a lot of issues you throw out for us, these are neither one dimensional nor partisan problems. Having said that, It seems to me energy independence would be one part of the solution to many of our economic problems, including inflation and GDP growth.
ps: I went fly fishing on the Yakima River in Washington state last month and thought of you as we landed (and released) blue ribbon rainbows.
If you were trying to make me jealous, Phil, you succeeded.
To ensure you know how very much I value your writing, as I stood in Walmart salivating over that $5 can of Spam...I CHOSE YOU! Yes, I value you at least that much. 😍
I'm moved, Mother of Invention. (I liked your work with Zappa.) Fun fact: Slack Tide contains less cholesterol than Spam. So you chose wisely.
as always in any crises period those that can least afford the ravage of inflation are the ones that suffer
the dearest. we need to stop subsidizing the chips industry as an example. intel ceo took home 179
million, yet his industry needs a subsidy to build some chip manufacturing facilities here in the u s a.
if all the politicians are against inflation and unfair taxes why do we have inflation and unfair taxes?
congress is in charge of fiscal policy. why can't we make them do their job? congress writes the tax code. do they treat the rich and the poor equally? of course not. forget the yellens and the winken blickens and nods and hold the congress's feet to the fire. maybe then we get closer to a nation that
treats all men equally.
Wise, as always, Tom.
Oh, my gosh. Your wife is a keeper
I am well disposed to acquire this vehicle (since I cut my teeth on a standard transmission). I won't consider the 'half-tank of gas' as a legit fee though.
Let's talk this through. I am in Ohio but have a base of operations with fam in Virginia. Are you anywhere east of the Mississippi?
If Trosino duct-tapes you and keeps you in his basement (wouldn't be the first time), try to get to a keyboard and send out an SOS. We'll be here, and will send help.
And your next post writes itself.
I was an English major, so I would have been laughed out of the economics department in college. I know about supply and demand, and that there's a big central bank (I think it's called Gringotts, and it's run by trolls) that works with the Treasury to buy something, and then transfer something else to somebody, and then new money magically appears. And if we're really good, bobble-heads in suits will give us some of that money in checks.
But the magic somehow runs out, and then a run to the grocery store costs as much as my daughter's appendectomy.
Yeah, it's definitely called Gringotts.
What I learned in Econ 101 was the difference between needs and wants. The result of companies changing their prices is we all have to look closer at what we need and want. If it helps, if you need to adjust your subscription price, I'd be glad to pay as much as $8 a month. That's only $2 a week, $96 a year. HECK, round it up to $100 a year (I'm always glad to pay extra for round numbers.) On they other hand, the New York Times has raised my subscription to $660 a year -- up about 15% from about a year ago. And the only thing that is compelling me to keep it is that it gives me a record of my long streak for Wordle wins. I'm starting to think I don't need that so much. But I've come to need to read a couple of your articles a week. Thanks so much.
Good man, Curt! I was toying with that as a Slack Tide subhead - The New York Times For People Who are Disillusioned With the New York Times, but it's not really true, so I"m holding off. (For now.) But good luck with your Wordle streak. We've all got rabbits to chase.
I don't understand all this hubbub over inflation when such a simple and easy solution is right at hand, and we need only look a bit into the past to find it:
WIN buttons.
Anybody here remember those? Raise your hand. If your motor function still allows you to, that is. For the youngsters who are unfamiliar:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_inflation_now
As low-tech, cheap, and as easy to produce at scale as pretty much any widget that any economics teacher ever spoke of in any economics class. And they can be quite fashionable and a boost to anyone's wardrobe!! I think Matt would look pretty darned cool with one tastefully pinned to his favorite fishing chapeau!!
Of course, they won't be quite as cheap to produce as they were back in the day, due to, uh, inflation. And there might be a supply chain issue or two. Or three. And of course, we'd need to find a way to get some of those slackers off unemployment and out their parent's basements to make the darned things.
But wait...we've got robots now. But I guess there might be a supply chain issue or three there as well, along with a labor issue if we want to make enough of them to make the buttons. But wait...we could just have some robots build the robots. Yeah, that's it. All we need now is for Congress to pass a bill pulling the trigger on a sawed-off double-barreled money gun pointed somewhere in the general direction of this button problem, along with stipulations that whatever corporate types who get the contracts won't overcharge - at least not excessively - for their services and product (they likely wouldn't do that, being as this would be such a patriotic endeavor and good for the country, but you never know) and it will no doubt not be too long before inflation is no longer a hot button issue, and we can all go back to bitchin' about something else that's perhaps not as frustrating as not being able to afford one's desired lifestyle...or maybe one's supper.
See...not really all that complicated. Don't know why these economists gotta' make it seem so hard. Maybe because some have got their eye on that Nobel Prize thingy and want to look a little extra smart. But you know, $1M+ just really ain't what it used to be, what with, uh, inflation and all. But I hear they throw in a pretty nice gold medal in the deal, and some of those guys probably prefer medals to buttons, as they are a bit more fashionable.
Everything old is new again, yes, Mike? I'm there . . . Inflation, the monster from our young adulthood is back. Just like bell bottoms or, as they are called now, pallazo pants.
Back then it was spurred by the great big population bulge called the baby boom of which I am a member. It was alot of people chasing a limited supply of the same thing: Levi jeans in our adolescence, apartments to rent in our single lives, homeownership in our married lives, Dockers when Levis were too uncomfortable for our expanding girth and now openings in assisted living centers. It's pretty simple. Put a bunch of people with 'needs' in a cage and start the bidding.
The answer, of course, is to opt out. Ease up on the gasoline, ride the bike, take the bus, eat vegetables. Overall, it's give up an unhealthy life style. The oil companies may have a conniption since we'll be ruining their evil plan.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/29/business/exxon-chevron-profit.html
That alone is worth it.
Hi, Doc. Yes, old to new, back and forth, on and on. Sort of the ultimate rat race in a way.
Opting out for me has been in progress for a while. Have been dedicated for some time to becoming an economic drop-out to the greatest extent possible, since I'm lucky enough to be tipping the scale mostly on just the 'need' side these days and not much on the 'want', and my needs these days are pretty basic. But I have to admit, the cost of the Top Shelf stuff does kind of smart a bit!
Personally, I think my keen and simple solution to our current inflation problems is more than Nobel worthy, but I really wouldn't know what to do with the $1M+. Maybe buy a new truck? The one I hauled that hay home with last week is 22 years old. Looks a bit rough, since it's at the point that a good pothole or railroad crossing sheds another pound or so of rust (which does, however, improve the gas mileage due to having to haul less weight around...take that, Exxon!!). And it hasn't been washed or the cab cleaned out since I discovered years ago that using a garden hose on the inside doesn't work well with factory carpet and cloth seats. But she's still a runner, and I've grown sort of fond of the old gal. So, nah, probably not. The medal does look kind of sporty, though. But I no longer frequent many places that require me to dress up in my Sunday-go-to-meetings, and the guys at the local waterin' hole would just take it as braggin' if I walked in with it danglin' from my neck. So if the Nobel folks call, I guess I'll just take a pass.
Bell bottoms? Really? Owned a pair for about a minute back in 7th Grade. Went well with my high-top lace-up GI style work boots that were also all the rage in certain fashion circles where I was stylin' around back in the day. Couldn't figure out whether I was a Hippie or a Redneck for a while there. Still not sure most days.
Everything old is new again, indeed. Except for me. When I figure out how to solve that problem, maybe I'll go on and accept the Nobel that will most assuredly follow. After all, if I'm gonna' be around a lot longer than expected, havin' a little extra somethin' put away couldn't hurt, what with inflation and all...
I am looking for a truck like that for my son and his fam. He is a lieutenant colonel in the Marine Corps who is retiring next year and just bought a 24 acre farm. He needs a truck like that to haul chicks, and ducks and goats and feed, and seed. He's at the Pentagon now but counting he days until he gets to jump into a pair of bib overalls and put his place in order. I can't think of a better life.
Well heck, Doc, tell your son to stop by my place on his way to the farm. I've got a 1-ton GMC with a 3-yard dump body sittin' out there that doesn't get a lot of use these days and just might fill the bill. Bought it to move dirt and compost around the property after I got tired of trying to hire someone to do it at a reasonable price, or even do it at all, regardless of the price. Turned out to be pretty good for hauling hay, bedding, feed, etc., as well.
It's 40+ years old, built when a truck was still just a truck and not a 'family vehicle' or testosterone booster. No computerized anything to be found anywhere on it... has an honest-to-God carburetor and is a genuine Green Acres rig. He really could hose out the cab if he ever felt the need, since the water would drain off what's left of the vinyl on what's left of the seat and flow right on out all those places you can see the roadbed through the bare steel the floor. Well, what's left of the floor anyway.
Been thinking about trying to find it a good home one of these days. Just a couple of caveats, though. The purchase price will only include a half a tank of gas, since that pesky and persistent leak in the top half of the tank makes filling 'er up not very economical or environmentally friendly. And one other thing...with a bit of a steep rear end (4.56) and a standard bulldog 4-speed manual trans with no overdrive, she's a real stump-puller, and she tells you that every second you open 'er up to 50 mph+ out on the open road. But if your son likes honest-to-God trucks, that'll be music to his ears.
Oh, and I guess I should mention the color. None of the standard red or black or white stuff. It's the same as the very popular color of the countertops and appliances in the kitchen of the home I bought 5 years after it was built back in 1980: avocado green. And a 'municipal' avocado green at that. Winner winner, chicken dinner. If he wouldn't be proud to paint the name of his farm on the doors of this ol' gal, well...
I knew I'd made a good choice on this one when my wife remarked upon seeing it in our driveway for the first time, "You don't really expect me to ever go anywhere with you in that, do you?" To which I replied, "No. I know you know how to drive a stick, so you'll be just fine driving it on your own." (Response pretty much unprintable here.)
I do wish you a clear path to the prize. Sometimes I think that we were the last generation who believed in the unlimited future as a birthright. Now everything seems so reduced for the generations (XYZ) and Millennials.
The upside is small is beautiful . . . and sustainable . . . and ultimately far more satisfying. Like hooking that slippery feller in the deep swirling pool of the river that reliably flows around us.
I read something the other day blaming a lot of the present inflation especially housing on the millennials, i.e. Baby Boomers' kids.
Makes sense. They are a mini-bulge with so much needs.
Having read a number of the comments, I have donned my word flack jacket. I too, ran through Econ 101 at the hands of one of the most profound monotonic speakers ever. Now had the subject been sex education, probably not so bad but Econ? I find economic policy during my lifetime to be reflexive rather than future looking. When events in the economy cause worry, our captains make adjustments to the course, if they can, and the storms abrewing are not to much to handle - like the bundled mortgage financial instruments unraveling a few years back. Not to mention, of course, the great depression, 1929 to 1942, which the US weathered with some severe belt tightening and a major World War. Let's hope today's inflation eases off without the need for such draconian action. If you want an easy primer in economic policy, look at the purchasing power of the dollar against real goods over the past 100 years and compare that curve to the curve of the National Debt over that same period. Notice anything? Yeah, the more we borrow, the poorer we get in actual purchasing power.
Finally, it is Matt's column. His views hold sway and his humor is, well, his - good (mostly hilarious), bad (rarely) or indifferent. I am a registered republican who votes near always democrat. Matt clearly struggles as I do with the Republicans but no need to give bad policy a pass regardless who is in office.
My Econ 101 professor told us the first class, don’t worry about studying for my test, you can’t pass it! Just remember, supply & demand, while holding up his money clip!
So where are we?
Lost.
Is Jimmy Carter back?
Brilliant. Again. Thanks!
Culture-war galoot! Somebody just won the internets today!!!!
I was chuckling with a friend the other day (because who doesn't like to chuckle?) about gas prices. How come, for the last year, Biden and all his sycophants were saying the president doesn't control gas prices, and now that prices are coming down slightly, he's posting and boasting about bringing down the prices of gas?
And, while we appreciate inflation not hurting the subscription rate, Matt, it also hasn't affected the cost of a Mega Millions or Power Ball ticket. I statistically have a better chance at becoming a billionaire by playing the lottery, than I do reading your column. That's because I'm stupid at the maths, too. And your column is funnier.
You ask, "How come...he's posting...about bringing down the price of gas"? Do you truly not understand this up front, or is this one of those rhetorical questions? Either way, the answer is clear:
Given all the Biden bashing that the President has experienced over the last 18 months, with so little of it based on facts (e.g., "the president doesn't control gas prices."), it's incumbent on those who value the fact-based truth, to speak up to the contrary of the blame.
Does "the president...control gas prices"? I would generally agree that, no, he does not. On the one hand.
On the other hand, anyone who wants to attend all the efforts the Biden administration has undertaken, to do what it can to lower prices, well:
The prices are slowly coming down. Regardless of whether President Biden deserves any credit for it, or not.
____________________
Thank you for raising the question, regardless of your rhetorical or otherwise intentions.
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
Very disappointed in the cheap hit on Prince Harry. Very Tucker-esque. To take a picture from 15 years ago at a costume party and extrapolate that to being an anti-Semite is not only not funny, it's something the NY Post would do. You are better than that, I hope.
As far as the inflation thing, there are three factors at play:
Years of easy money from the fed to keep the economy propped up while the boomers were in their prime earning years and the tea party contracted the economy coming out of the great recession by insisting on insufficient stimulus because Obama. That's the main reason for the housing bubble.
The twin shocks of emergence from Covid lockdowns in most of the world (except China, which is making supply chain problems worse) and the war in Ukraine.
The asinine way that inflation is calculated by the government is distorting the actual rate of inflation. Right now, Americans have bought all the electronic toys and stuff that is actually cheaper than it used to be that they want, and are now all trying to buy the same perishable goods.
As someone else pointed out below, there is not much wage pressure on prices, contrary to breathless news stories about the "great resignation". The forward yield curves are predicting a return to 2-3%, or lower inflation within a year or 2. People just need to calm the F down.
I think Janet Yellen is over-parsing when trying to allay people's fears, but she is an academic and not the most plain-spoken person. Still, she's very smart, and i have faith in her and her team.
I agree with your view of Sec. Yellen. It was a great—and, of course, petty—loss, for Janet Yellen to be discarded as she was by the previous White House. And kudos to the Biden administration for taking advantage of her skills, yet again.
I agree with you on the "over-parsing," too. But we know the results when such an official needs to speak with words that will reach a deliberately negative audience. (I'm personally waiting for former Chairman Greenspan to publicly basing some of his economics views on the reading of Ayn Rand, back when he was in college! Hard to compare any subsequent Treasury Secretary or Fed Chairman after that.)
____________________
I sleep better at night, these past 18 months, for believing that the U.S. is once again in comparably good hands.
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
Big prince Harry fan are ya?
And a Yellen aficionado?
Quite a one two punch..
No, not a fan of either.
Just a fan of fairness and not beating people up publicly for things they may or not have done, or things they may or may not believe just because you have a political axe to grind.
okay, you've convinced me.
Apparently I'm not better than that, or I wouldn't have made the joke. But it was a joke, so you should calm down, Frank. Perhaps one in poor taste. But then, so is dressing up in a Nazi costume. If he does that, the guy's an attention jockey. And he hasn't slowed down in that department, now that he's just written an entire book in which he's expected to throw his family under the bus. Again.
And not sure you're not overestimating Yellen's smarts. When 3/4ths of the country was worried about inflation and could hear the train coming head-on from the dark side of the tunnel, she took a powder on it, playing it off as no big deal. That's a pretty big call to miss when the economy is your specialty. If an NFL handicapper predicted the Jets would win the Super Bowl after going 22-59 for the last five seasons, we wouldn't put too much faith in him.
I am calm.
I'm sure you did all sorts of dumb things when you were the age he was in the picture with the nazi costume. I know I did. I also know that it wouldn't be fair to assume I held vile beliefs based on those dumb things I did in college. And maybe the royal family needs to be thrown under the bus for some of the things they've done.
Yellen's position is an inherently political one, as opposed to Fed chair Powell's. She has a vested interest in trying not to scare people. Maybe she waited a little long to sound the alarm, but up until recently, a lot of other non-political economists were saying the inflation is transitory and will revert back to the mean soon. I think the truth is somewhere in between the Paul Volker "stagflation" emergency and the polyanna view of Yellen. It will go away, hopefully without driving the economy into a recession.
Here's hoping for a speedy end, and positive Ukrainian outcome, to Russia's invasion. One would need to be totally economics-indifferent to avoid curiosity about what such a result can have on global inflation, and how fast.
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
I am calm.
no truly calm person begins another lengthy typing sesh with those words.
Let's hope you're right about it going away. Even if there's a long history of prices not dropping after a sustained jag like this one, and even if the inflation rate itself does. (Two different animals.)https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/07/05/inflation-prices-wont-drop-soon/7778227001/?gnt-cfr=1 And I'm generally pro not-scaring people. But there's a fine line between optimism and denial. Yellen sort of erred on the side of the latter. As evidenced by the 40-year inflationary high that followed her denial.
And yes, I did dumb things in college. Still do, sometimes. But even at my very dumbest, I can honestly say I never thought it'd be a swell idea to go to a party in a Hitler costume. Again however......it was a joke. Shouldn't be taken literally or seriously.
It's a year-over-year comparison. Don't ascribe a trend to a small set of data. I agree it is not ideal, but not a long term trend. Demographic changes will help flatten the long term curve. If we don't do something about immigration, the US is going to be Japan within 10 years, where an aging population who doesn't buy anything but health care and basics forces the economy into perma-recesssion.
From my comfortable upper middle class perch, I think Americans pay too little for a lot of things, because the external costs of their consumption are not paid by the user. Things like electricity, gasoline, alcohol, and junk food are far too cheap in my opinion. It encourages consumption that projects costs onto others that had no say in whether you consumed them or how much you consume. But we think driving an oversized truck/SUV you have no practical need for many miles on a daily commute while eating Big Macs is a birthright.
I'm sure Harry thought his Hitler costume was a joke, too. I agree it's never a good idea to dress up as Hitler. But what about blackface? or Klan robes? I've heard somewhat militant women fuss about men in drag, even bad amateur drag because they think it denigrates women. I agree we need to have a better sense of humor about a lot of things and not be offended by everything, but that goes both ways.
Yes, I understand it's a year-over-year comparison. But maybe you're not understanding my point, illustrated in the piece I sent along. (Which was paywalled, my bad.) Which is that even when our 9 percent inflation rate drops to say, 6 percent, prices are still high as hell, they've just ceased increasing at the same rate. (Though they're still increasing.) And many of those prices are here to stay - according to the experts cited. And good luck with wages catching up to that runaway train, since there's been a 3.9 percent decrease in real wages, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So I'm not certain what country you're inhabiting at the moment, but in the one I live in, we're paying more than enough for alcohol and gasoline. Perhaps not as much as the Europeans (as commonly cited), but most Europeans also get cradle-to-grave subsidized healthcare and at least 4 paid vacation weeks per year. The average American doesn't, so they need cheap gas to drive to the liquor store, in the interest of pain-numbing. And as for it not being a long-term trend, as one Wharton finance professor said in that piece: "“Once core prices go up, generally they don’t come down. In the last 40 to 50 years, we’ve never seen deflation in core goods. Most durable goods and services don't really come down in price.”
I wasn't terribly offended by Harry. I made a throwaway joke. Which we shouldn't explore any further, on EB White's principle that overanalyzing jokes is like dissecting a frog: "Few people are interested and the frog dies of it."
If anything gets thrown away it should be Harry, not your joke.
But Matt, I too am very disappointed...with your cheap hit on the Jets. Two strong drafts, some good free agent signings, best pass rusher returning from injury...and now I'm not sure I can even root for them ever again after what you wrote...
HAH! [*SQUEAK!*] [BMM-BMM-BMM!] IS THIS ON? CAN EVERYONE HEAR M[*SQEAK!*] [POP!]
Hi. Longtime caller, first-time listener. Thank you for this town hall. I'm here to tell you that Donald Trump set us free. Not only has the inflationary pressure that pumped up his ego spilled over into the economy. That louder-than-life ambulatory priapus of a man (and I use the term loosely) has finally given rise to prices on everything under the sun. Yes, I know. I said "rise." [snort]
Speaking as another boring old white male from Central Redneck County, and on behalf of my fellows, Donald Trump has set us free. He's taught us that we're equally entitled to our grievances. And he did so without teaching. Because one of the primary tenets of Redneckhood is to shun teaching and education of any kind. If you learn anything, keep it to yourself and don't show off. Or we'll kick your ace, get it?
Me and my pro-Trump fellers would privately like to take pity on the rest of America for the offensive language, the crude banality of his cruelty--but we so much enjoy inflicting more of the same. It's fun! So funk your feelings!
You people in the eeeelite meeeedia caused this inflation! It's all your fault. More importantly, it's not our fault. We voted for Trump to tear it all down and dump it into a drainage ditch, uh, swamp. And if you guys can have your grievance culture--*so can we, Buster!*
Anyhoo. Thanks for the laughs. Is they any free tacos left at the buffet? Is it Toozdy? [*FFFSZHTTS*] here, take it [SSSKKRRTSH!]
[Drops mic]
Trying to remember why I paid for this.
See my Deb message, below, Steve "The Great."
Hello Steve,
I love your direct statement.
Please stay.
We need men who talk straight.
I can assure you that many
of the rest of us
have experienced the same amnesia
from time to time.
Why do we stay?
Because Labash
will hit us with his best shot
next time
or the time after
and we'll be on the ground
laughing and crying
at the same time.
realizing
what we would have missed
On the other hand Dr. Deb, apple of my eye, Steve's being a deliberate prick, so you shouldn't make him feel good about being a jerk-off. Attendance isn't compulsory, and if he doesn't like it, that's fine. All taste is subjective. I'll let it slide. But if he poisons my well again in public, he's going to find out real quickly what getting taken to the woodshed looks like. My house, my rules. I argue with people of goodwill all the time in this space, who have actual disagreements with me. But I don't put up with pricks, who are just being pricks for the sake of it. The internet is full of those, so he has plenty of other places to go. And I will happily show him the way.
Great to see your true colors, Matt. Don't forget to have your wife do all your dirty dishes so you have time to catch your fish. Keep on with your slacking, but count me out.
Best of luck to you, Steve. Somewhere else......
Well-said, Deborah.
I made about the same grade as you did on introductory economics at UNC, but what's happening, and has happened over the last 40+ years doesn't need a practitioner of the dismal science of economics nor, as Harry Truman requested, a one-armed economist to explain. (Remember that he tired of the economists who droned on, "On the one hand...On the other hand"?) Having lived through the last inflationary cycle, I know we've been through worse. In 1982, inflation was 6.16 percent, and joblessness reached a post-World War II high — 9.7 percent of the labor force. Ronald Reagan had a 41% approval rating in August, 1982, the lowest ever in a Gallup Poll for a president early in his term. More for a look back and a look forward. https://jimbuie.substack.com/p/inflation-is-at-a-40-year-high
To those of you who think the Democratic Party, or Joe Biden, or the Saudis, or the Russians caused gasoline pri ces to skyrocket, think again. This story comes from the far left, business hating, socialist, media fringe, FOX News: https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/exxon-chevron-shell-profits-soar-oils-surge
You should have been my friend. You wouldn't have had to pull a muscle in your neck to get a glimpse of my answers. I would have taken my test and then switched with you and taken yours too. I did this for my BFF in college and sometimes for my college roommate freshman year, who was also a good friend. I was an English major so no expertise in econ, but I blame all the COVID aide and waiting too long to raise interest rates. And Title 42. We need those workers back.
You sound like a wonderful person and a model citizen, Jan. If only you'd sat in front of me in Trigonometry.
I choose to not hear any sarcasm in that comment.
No sarcasm intended!
Would that as much effort would go in to accurate economic planning and forecasting as has gone into redefining the parameters for a recession.
In another highly complicated economic question, what’s with the victory lap on a $.25 drop in gas prices (against a $1.30/gallon increase BEFORE the war in Ukraine)? If you campaign to end the fossil fuel economy, you should be apologizing for giving a reprieve to Big Oil.
Distraction, Matt! I thought for a second there that you were using inflation/Karine/Biden et al to distract from the news about Gaetz/Stone. Then I realized chances are good you didn’t read HCR’s and important writing about the “hot mic”. But the definite slide into the R’s talking points is starting. Is that to ease us into seeing your true position in time for an election year? Curiouser and curiouser…
Yeah, right! If you stacked all my criticisms of the Trumpsters up against those of the current administration, it's running about 10-1 against the Trumpsters, and they're not even in office, even if they refuse to acknowledge it. Ask a Trumpster if you don't believe me.
Bwahahahaha! Do they read? Hmm. Do they read your column? 🧐
Yes, ma’m we do. I voted for Trump, twice, and yet, despite the “mainstream” opinion that we are all knuckle dragging deplorables we can be quite discerning in our literary choices. Your disdain is welcome, as it is precisely the reason Trump won (once) and why someone perhaps a bit more genteel but with the same policies will no doubt win again. Good day.
Well, bless your heart. You are quite presumptuous to think I’m a “mainstream thinker”.
I presume nothing, your derision was quite clear, which is the herd mentality toward Trump voters. In my neck of the woods to say “ bless your heart” as a preface to something is considered condescending, further evidence of your disdain. I bear you no ill will, it’s just politics, after all.
I not only know very little ( I did take Econ 101 in college and got a A , but, I promptly forgot most of it after the tests...lol) about economics, I find it incredibly dry and boring...
Gas prices have come down $2.80 a gallon here, so, not back to where it was, but, miles better. The alast time I filled up it was $8 less than the time before.
Food prices have gone up, but, I am no stranger to cutting back on some of my champagne tastes when needed...lol...where it has really hit me is something I like/want, but isn't a necessity...entertainment , and subscriptions...
Also, some of my utilities went nuts, I redid my cable/internet /phone one as a result...brought it down about $91 and got everything I really needed.
Maybe I am just disinclined to get upset about financial woes, been there, done that, several times, both economy wise ( inflation and recession ) and personal not in my control events.
While I wish it wasn't so, wishing doesn't make it happen...lol..I survived the other times and hopefully will survive this time too. ( I was never as poor as I was during and before the cancer/chemo, and it sucked, but, maybe I am just a ridiculously stoic sufferer?...lol)
The benefits of training. You've been in training for a long time, Angie.
This made me laugh out loud thanks...you have a point...lol
seems to me that "two consecutive quarters" is no longer, or at least not the only, appropriate definition of a Recession.
Cue to This Fella in a dream induced by recent medical procedure: - He dreams of a world where Politicians will just talk the truth and not be so concerned about re-election. Americans would pay attention to quarterly profits during these inflationary times, not just in their 401ks, oh wait, weren't oil companies divested?
Oof, time for vital signs again?
Dream scenario brought on by Oxycodone and Tylenol.
What I miss buying: Not me….but my two millennial daughters want to buy homes but have given up for now. There’s NO WAY inflation is at 9.1% because of the lame way they compute housing, owner’s equivalent rent….not what people actually pay for rent. It is probably more like 15-20%.
# 4 was masterful transition to luring in paid subscribers, well played sir. As far as pronunciation, how about Aix en Provence, that's tripped up a few would be francophiles of my acquaintance. I've avoided trendy Spanish islands so far.
Thanks for noticing my transparent opportunism, Tom. Using a crisis to try to bolster profits. I'm kind of like ExxonMobil that way.
I JUST PAID 6.79 FOR A BAG OF FAMILY SIZED TOSTITOS!!!! I would’ve given them to the cashier but I was at a self checkout and didn’t want to create a kurfuffel.
As long as there is no wage/price spiral, which there doesn’t appear to be, then inflation is self correcting. It’s a shame that it corrects itself by making you broke... or more gently put reducing your disposable income. With the Fed also reversing QE and raising interest rates at a hefty clip, my guess is inflation is running at target by year end.
A counter- counterpoint: Admittedly anecdotal evidence here, but my company is up 50% on starting pay for unskilled/ semi-skilled labor versus 2020, and this is in a county that has historically been in the 15-20% range for unemployment. Even with this we still have 200% annual turnover, and this is with good benefits and good working conditions. Others in the industry are seeing the same, so while it might not yet be in a spiral, wage increases are with us- at least in our little corner of the empire. There is a definite bidding war going on to get employees who will consistently show up to work 40 hours a week.
Yes - we see the same in my industry for those same areas. But salaried folks got a 3.0% pay bump. So I agree with you completely, but when you look at the full aggregate data across the whole economy, we’re still seeing real disposable income declining and that should start to take inflation down.
Now on the labor shortage side I am more pessimistic - it’s really a shame. The US economy is shrinking partly just because it can’t staff and that high turnover is a killer for productivity (constantly training etc.). All while we’re busy turning away people who are literally knocking down the door to come work here. It’s a spectacular own goal!
The lack of a truly functioning green card system perfectly illustrates how political grandstanding in both parties has hurt this country. If you want to work here, get a business sponsor (there are plenty of legitimate brokers already doing this), send some basic personal info to allow a security/ criminal records check, and if all is well there, check in with your sponsor where you have the same employment rights as everyone else- no below market wages, no cash payments- and pay your taxes. If you leave that sponsor, find another and update your whereabouts. If you keep your nose clean and stay off the public dole for enough years, then we can talk about permanent citizenship.
Double like
Maybe Quality TV is now too good to part with for eight hours a day. I finally just picked up on Ozark, and I have about 43 more episodes to go. So I suppose paying the mortgage can wait......
You’ve hit on it - once Netflix cracks down on password sharing and everyone finishes Stranger Things people will get back to work and the economy will be saved.
Not sure in your case though, once you’re done with Ozark you’re going to have Josh Hawley’s new book “Manhood” to read.
How To Be A Man, by Josh Hawley. That oughta be a pretty short book. Even his wife has to be doing a spit-take on that one.
So I'm genuinely curious from both of you: What, in your estimation, is causing the drastic labor shortage nearly a year after enhanced benefits and extended unemployment dried up? (Besides, say, mothers who've exited the workforce.) It wasn't THAT much scratch. What are so many people doing for money that they have the option to not work, when all I ever read is how the average American doesn't have two nickels to rub together in savings?
Can I pipe up here? Our system worked fairly well as a workforce/employment engine until our skills requirements became much more complex. As the needs of employers exceeded the planning options for young people (most kids say they want to be 'firemen' or teachers . . . something they can see and related to). But envisioning becoming a coding specialist for defense systems is not a readily available option.
So our system is 'broken' and we don't adequately prepare young people for developing the goals that may yield an opportunity that will carry them to a higher level of skill and then expanded job options. Craft type jobs like plumbing, electrician work, building trades are tightly controlled by the profession. Many young people end up in basic, basic positions with the hope of 'something' happening. (You don't just go down to the plant and get a job with dad when you graduate.) They stagnate in spots with no skills development, no path to higher income, no post-secondary education. Their lives begin to spin out of control through normal kid-type missteps like trouble with law enforcement (me, raising my hand) or having babies. (Not that having babies is a misstep but timing is everything.)
It's hard to explain to young people how difficult adulting is. Many of them are shocked at what is expected and there are archetypes out there now in our popular literature and cinema that reflect our current status. The male is the Jackass mook that marries and fails as a husband and father and clings to prolonged adolescent: the great American screw-up. The female is the sexy young girl who marries too soon with hopes of the picket fence but ends up single mom, bitter but determined: the noble woman warrior.
I have seen many examples of both as a counselor at a Community College and they are endearing as they juggle and keep plugging away. Many are on second or third chances and most triumph but it's no way to run an economy.
I buy all this. Good insight, Susan.
Wow. I feel like I just got asked to the prom by the quarterback of the high school football team.
Again, I’m only commenting on what I see, and at the risk of sounding like an old codger yelling at the kids on my lawn, the workers just entering the labor force are lacking basic skills needed for long-term employment, things like showing up for work, on time, and working a full day, or even calling a supervisor to let them know they will be late or absent. Young workers seem to have a lot of doctor and lawyer appointments that prevent a full day’s work, and have little or no concept or concern of the impact their absence has on production. They are also constantly on the lookout for opportunities to make claims in the areas of workers comp and equal employment opportunities- no matter how nebulous the factual basis for a claim might be.
Beyond that, I think even with extra and extended benefits ended, the regular ol’ benefits are still very competitive against a $15/job, especially if there are multiple generations sharing housing. In our state there are minimal requirements for job applications in order to maintain unemployment benefits, and we have had applicants tell us up front that they don’t want the job, but would we please make sure and verify that they applied. In short, it has become easier and easier to game the system, and it looks like the upcoming generation is pretty savvy in this area.
As to the lack of savings, I wouldn’t doubt that, but this group of undesirables/ unemployables operate strictly on a day to day outlook, and looking at the trend even pre-Covid of unemployment and other benefits being almost reflexively extended for months on end, they can’t really be blamed for assuming that they’ll be taken care of. Sorry for all the negative waves here, but it’s frustrating.
I don't dispute you, Simple Man. This is why I ask people in a position to know when I get a chance (i.e., small businessmen, or even large businessmen, or businesspersons, I suppose we should say.) But if employees were milking the unemployment system (and there was a lot of legitimate non-milking when lockdowns first kicked off, 3/4ths of America was shut down and people were legitimately suffering), they already came to the end of that rope, no? You can't keep extending unemployment forever. Every state has a finite amount of time you can stay on, and if you got on in the early days of the pandemic, that time has long passed. And if you've already claimed it once, after getting laid off from your job, you have to get another job, then get laid off from it, too, to receive unemployment again. And even if you manage that, chances are you ain't getting much of a payout, as it probably tends to the low-end scale. You won't have much work history, and enhanced payouts are a thing of the past. But this I believe, and it actually made me laugh hard: "Young workers seem to have a lot of doctor and lawyer appointments that prevent a full day’s work." Lawyer's appointments!........
Still, I believe the children are our future. If only because the rest of us will be dead, and the future won't have a choice.
Not debating the need for at least the first round of Covid relief at all, and you are right in that there are diminishing returns as this plays out, but refer back to Exhibit A: One Day Horizons. No sane person would see this as a 20 year plan, but I think the game plan is to stay on benefits as long as possible, and then work just long enough to ‘reset’- and maybe some undefined better thing will materialize in the meantime.
Great question. You should go back after all these years and ask the professor to officially adjust your grade to a B-. I’m not an economist either (engineer with an MBA) - but the performance of the Fed makes me wish I had gone into economics. I’d love to be that wrong and be able to not just cling to my job but still strut around all important like. Nice work if you can get it.
This year and next are peak years for the baby boomer generation to reach retirement age, and in my company we’ve seen a lot of folks retire a little early. We’ve needed to add workers versus the 2019 baseline to deal with supply chain issues, etc.
Still, I agree with you that it is very odd. The working age population is still rising and I would have expected the total workforce to be over the 2019 level as a result. But the workers just aren’t there, and I haven’t seen a good explanation for that anywhere.
The British call it Eye-Beef-Ah, with an F
Ibiza is pronounced ee-beeth-ah because it is the name of a Spanish island, not an English one. Spanish people speak with Spanish pronunciations. Grathias. And yes, that's the way you pronounce "thank you" in Spain Spanish...but not in Mexican Spanish.
Would someone actually look up the facts and figures of Q1 and Q2 PROFITS of big oil. The price of a barrel of oil has been well over $100.00 numerous times, but Shell Oil and their ilk have NEVER had 300% profits in one quarter over the same quarter the previous year. Can you pronounce profiteering. Big Oil stocks have gone up over 50% this year, while the overall market has dropped over 20%. But, give Shell a break. They have to be reponsible to their stockholders. Btw...what are stock buybacks? Wink.
They have also not seen demand accelerate as it did coming out of the pandemic. I would remind you that the price of oil a little over 2 years ago was negative, as in worth less than nothing. Not sure what business you’re in but I’d like to see your reaction to price swings of that nature, while all the while the administration was demonizing you and your product as inherently evil.
Read any substantial articles from Q1 and you will learn that big oil did not attempt to increase supply to meet demand, therefore their prices skyrocketed. Shell oil, in Q1 and Q2 made more profits than any quarters in their 115 year history. Shell's response to requests to increase oil production was met with the answer: They needed to be responsive to their shareholders. The absolute peak price of a barrel of oil occurred in June 2008 with the highest inflation-adjusted monthly average crude oil price of $168.75 / barrel, whereas pp barrel today is 104 USD. Gas prices in 2008 were around $3 a gallon. All of these price increases in 2022 came after big oil made up for the losses of Russian oil. Nothing increased gasoline prices more than gasoline companies. Nothing. And I don't know where you get off using histrionic terms like demonizing and evil. This is not a theological debate. This is simply greed. You know the mantra - Greed is good.
There is ample evidence of price gouging, including a March report from the Dallas Federal Reserve, which found that 59 percent of oil company executives identified “investor pressure to maintain capital discipline” as the chief explanation for why US-based oil companies aren’t increasing production in order to relieve shortages and reduce gas prices for Americans.
By the way, Berkshire Hathaway is buying a lot of big oil stock right now.. Coincidence? nah.
I don’t want to get in a pissing match with you. Just using the phrase “ big oil” is, to me, an indication that you dislike oil companies in general. Check out the market caps of tech companies if you want to see what “ big” is, Exxon Mobil is a runt in comparison. I assume you know what price signaling is as it relates to the stock market. If the feds express an antipathy toward you and your product and use the power of the government to curb the sale and use of that product, then you’re in a death spiral. Can you blame them for capitalizing on what is most probably a temporary spike in prices?
Conoco Phillips, Exxon, Shell, did not respond to the fed's pressure. In fact, they gave the feds the finger. They said, we are going to going to buy back stocks and give dividends to our stockholders, and that's that. By the way, big oil is a good buy on the market today and in the foreseeable future. That's not judgment, that's just math. By the way, big oil is a term I use for multi billion dollar oil companies, unlike Marathon...just shorthand.
That's a lot of "th"-ing. Would probably be wise to learn how to say "Thay it, don't Thpray it" in Spain Spanish.
It's only the S sound in the middle of the word that gets the 'th' treatment. Go to Barthalona sometime. You'll here it constantly. And it's not just Catalan, it's all Spain. I say this with all sintherity.
It’s not that at all.
The letter “s” is never pronounced “th” in Spain, wherever in the word it is.
The letters “c” and “z” always get lisped. To confuse things further, the letter “d” is pronounced “dth” when it’s the last letter of a word, like Madridth or thiudadth (ciudad).
Oh, and “y” and “ll” are hard J’s (Joe soy) but “j” Is pronounced roughly like you are hacking up a hairball
The SOUND of s, in the middle of a word. i.e. Servicio = restroom in Spain. It is pronounced sayr veeth ee oh. In Mexico, restroom is banos (bahn yos)...as most people know. In Spain, Gracias, which has an S sound in the middle of the word, is pronounced grahth ee ahs. It's the S sound. Sorry for any confusion. La Gordita didn't read the above response correctly.
What a wotten thing to do attacking the wich for our shpeech impedededediments!
Holla !
See Matt Stoller on that ...but you can start with the food processors,drug companies and the big maritime shippers .
Wild that we are not taking a closer look there .
Matt Labash writes: “Of course, me being an Econ C-student seems to put me in good company with Joe Biden, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and a host of administration Baghdad Bobs who also seem to have little-to-no idea what’s going on, failing even, to acknowledge that we’re in a recession. “
I don’t know you, Matt, well-enough to know if you’d care, but your formulation seemingly comparing yourself to our country’s dominant practical economists, is an effect that many use to undermine opponents with an admittedly inadequate basis for doing so. You manage both to punch yourself up (putting yourself in substantial company) and to punch the others down (such as by leading readers to imagine Janet Yellen looking over someone’s shoulder in an Econ class, trying to cheat).
The late Rush Limbaugh (among others ) perfected this trick. If you listen to the post-Limbaugh iteration, Travis and Sexton, you’ll hear similarly dismissive statement about, say, any Democrats and also about, say, all Democrats.
“Bless Yellen’s and Powell’s and, God Help Us, the sitting President of the United States’ pointed, little heads. They mean well, but come on! They’re Democrats! Now how about a word about MyPillows®.”
It’s a damn “trick,” that works for comedy, but currently plays an outsized role in undermining credentials and Credibility, and thereby enhances a who-can-you-trust-ness throughout our society.
“Heck! We might as well trust Matt Labash as these credentialed others, because they’re no better than he is, and he knows nothing about economics, so they know nothing about economics, and a situation with improving job numbers is a Recession, the label is what matters, and who gives a darn about anything else? Inflation is globally systemic, not a domestic phenomenon, and Chairman Powell puts his pants on, one leg at a time, same as me, so I don’t even know what a Recession actually is, but it shows the Democrats don’t know what they’re doing, four-thirds of the time, and Hillary’s emails. Libtards! Sheesh!”
Your writing here, as always, is well-done and clever. Your base point disappoints, in terms of seeking to help make our divided country a better place.
____________________
I’d have said this privately, but (A) I’m not sure I know how to do that on the Internet and (B) I’m hard-pressed to imagine that even such a thought-ful person as You is going to give much thought to This.
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
Thank you for this splendid response!
Or......you left out another possibility: that Labash - much as it pains him to refer to himself in the third person - doesn't know what he's talking about inflation-wise AND neither does Janet Yellen. Sometimes, experts are dismissed reflexively because it's become cool to be a rube who prides himself on his rube-ishness (see Travis and Sexton) and to distrust The Establishment, whatever the establishment is anymore. (Travis and Sexton are the establishment when it comes to being fake Rush Limbaughs.) But sometimes, it's because the experts are legitimately and demonstrably not very smart about the thing they're supposed to be expert at. Which in Yellen's case, is the economy. She missed the call, and by a lot. Not that she'd have been able to head it off anyway. But if you can't even correctly diagnose the problem, there's almost zero chance of fixing it.
Curiouser still Mattie, is your definitive take on an expert that you may, or may not, share a hairstyle with but don’t let us in on your source…perhaps it’s the fine folks over at Faux…
I don't want to be mean, which you are encouraging (shame on you), but if I shared Janet Yellen's bowl cut, I would reach straight for the shears. Better bald than bowl'ed. That's how I was raised.
Ha! Blame me for your trek into mean? Try again-I gave up my “Queen of Mean” title long ago…I’m afraid you find yourself alone on this slippery slope!
An interesting point (to my mind) is who gets my point and who doesn't, and why.
During the pandemic, with my SiriusXM lapsed and desperate for some talk radio, I tuned to the local station that used to carry Rush Limbaugh. That's how I happened on Travis & Sexton. As I began listening, they sounded sensible to me—using a form of soft-talk-insulting-anything-on-the-Left. It always leaves listeners convinced they join Travis/Sexton/Limbaugh in knowing more than the Liberals, the Democrats, or the Fed Chair & Treasury Secretary and—God love 'im!—the Democrat president. Bless his heart.
Matt's passage (that I quoted to kick off this discussion) gave me a first glimpse of how it works.
In what conscientious world would a lay-person (with a sub-par education in economics) make the kind of bass-ackwards comparisons we hear on Fox, on AM-Talk Radio, and from Mr. Trump?
No wonder that, intellectually, Americans are coming up short.
____________________
Matt (per his response) seems not to get it: "Labash...doesn't know what he's talking about inflation-wise AND [ergo] neither does Janet Yellen." I don't know how to teach someone what is deceptively flawed in such a formulation.
But at least, after all these years of fighting against the flawed reasoning that elected Mr. Trump and led up to the 1/6/2021 coup attempt and beyond—at least, I found a clue. Courtesy of our host, Matt Labash.
____________________
Thanks, Nancy, for what you picked up on, here. It drew me back. I have learned something substantive as a result.
With luck and more hard work, maybe we will finally start getting through to those who seem so limited in interest or in capabilities to be reached.
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
—
I could not figure it out. I'd have been unable to explain (espc
(($; -)}™
—
No, Gozo, that wasn't my point. My point was that just because I, an amateur, don't know what I'm talking about doesn't necessarily confer legitimacy on someone who was appointed to a position that they're clearly bad at. (I.E., Yellen.) So not "ergo," but "additionally" would be the more precise way of stating it. And without seeming peevish to you and Nancy, I would also submit that there's plenty of people who stand up and cheer when you criticize your "own side" (I don't really have a side anymore, but I came up right-leaning, before the right turned into a bunch of foaming-at-the-mouth anarchists), but the second you level even a blatantly obvious criticism of their side, they think you're carrying water for your old team. Again, that's not the case here. I know that the right lies all the time about all manner of things, from democracy to the Biden administration to you name it. And I have written that explicitly and repeatedly. But even seditionist blind pigs find acorns now and then. And so when they criticize this administration for being weirdly out of touch with what's going on economically, or at least feigning out-of-touchness since it's in the administration's political interest to pretend that we're not in recession and/or that inflation isn't as damaging as it is, well, that's a totally legitimate criticism. What I'm really against is being a slave to binary thinking. And thinking either side has a monopoly on truth when both sides have proven to be utterly corrupt and inept and self-interested is telling yourself a story that should not be filed in the nonfiction section.
Matt, esteemed host, I do not know what to say, right off hand.
Here, you repeat the same quality of point: "....just because I, an amateur, don't know what I'm talking about doesn't necessarily confer legitimacy on someone who was appointed to a position that they're clearly bad at. (I.E., Yellen.)"
I can't teach you to see what you cannot find how to see for yourself. I have no clue as to a solution.
Via some of your posts, I value the opportunity to notice some things, and to do what I can to explicate them for a wider understanding.
In the latter effort, I continue to fall short. Falling short makes the whole experience of striving to communicate on Social Media feel like a vain effort.
I see this vanity, on the one hand, and yet I see nothing else to try, to help right our democracy. You and I share this ambition, at least to some extent. So I can value your own efforts. It means a good deal.
Until next time,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
No harm in that impulse, Gozo. That's good enough for me.
We all fall short, Gozo.
It takes courage to speak.
Thank you for speaking.
We all want to help right our democracy.
None of us is clear
by ourselves
on how we can do that.
So we actually listen
to each other here.
We think.
We learn.
We grow.
I admire you and Matt and everyone here
who truly cares about our democracy
and refuses to be silent.
But what is true?
You are in good company with this sort of view. I appreciate your considered thought, particularly the way you restate my point in your opening sentence.
Thanks, too, for the courtesy of your response, Matt. You put words together well. I wish I could do the same!
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
Don't be so hard on yourself, Gozo. You do just fine with words. And besides, in the inflationary future, we won't be able to afford to use words. Too many pixels. We will speak only by emoji.
They overlearned the lessons of 2008, which were themselves an underlearning of a lesson from...somewhere else probably. Also, economics is hard, which is why everybody falls back on their tried and true priors (it's all the communists'/business barons' faults!). This is probably gonna make the MMT crowd less powerful, so there is that. For me personally, the counterfactuals, where we threw too LITTLE money around are a strong argument as to why things could be worse if we did that again. I am now eating more beans, which I had been meaning to get around to. This inflation situation could really end up crimping the market for heart-surgeon yachts. That always stings the most.
Legumes are bad-cholesterol killers. Though do remember to keep a window open.....
ah! That too yes thanks. As for the windows, pretty soon the digestion system gets bad without the beans. I make a huge all-week-vat of slop. A few weeks in, now it's the other way around, no beans? Open a window.
Disgusting, but kind of funny.........
Thank you! High praise from Matt Labash! You could here also be describing our politicians/pundits/celeb chefs....
I think there was only one guy in my high school who understood chemistry. And thanks to him, 30 others got a D. Whew!
Isn't inflation just another form of a price increase ?
Three years ago when you cable bill went up 10 % no one seemed to care.
If we can't survive a 10% price increase by being smart about how we spend we are all forked !
And how much of this do we we think are just opportunistic businesses getting in on the inflationary group grope? Speaking of my cable company.
We’re doing what we’re going to do … inflation or not. Right now we’re building a house. You can imagine how that’s going, given that we bought undeveloped land and need a well, septic field, fencing, well house, and storage building in addition to the house itself. Is this wise, you may ask? Of course not! And yet we bulldoze forward.
I've never taken a single course in economics, but I don't feel that should preclude me from chiming in on this conversation. With my limited knowledge in how the economy works, I struggle with distinguishing a recession from a depression. All I know is that either situation means we have money problems. That said, I'm married to a man who, since our marriage in 1974, has been predicting the next Great Depression. I've always made a bit of fun of him, even to the point of storing a bunch of clothes in the 70s and 80s and labeling them "Depression Clothes." Now it looks as if I might be hauling that box from the attic, although I'm sure none of those clothes still fit. It has taken almost fifty years, but it looks as though I'll have to admit my husband was right. I hate it when that happens.
Who cheated on the exam, not me. It was the French 200 exam, I didn't know French for " umbrella ". I nudged Jim sitting across from me, to ask. Jim moved his sweater, which was hiding the dictionary. He flipped through it... and told me " la parpluie". Did I cheat ? Did Jim cheat ? Did I make Jim cheat ?
We are all sinners in search of salvation.
Karine Jean Pierre may not be great but she'd have a hard time following the woman who was perhaps the best press secy in my old lifetime. So I cut her some slack (and don't listen to her).
But Sean Spicer owes us ALL an apology -- and will forever owe us more of an apology than we get even if we got one (and he got self awareness)!
Re: Inflation -- I don't even play an economist in my own living room, but I do think the primary reason for the fact I cannot afford food or gas is GREED -- have you SEEN the IMMENSE profits of the oil and gas industry, Bezos, Musk, etc etc etc the past two years and now!!??!! It is also the war in Ukraine and the incredible mishandling of the pandemic and probably bad advisors in a couple of White Houses. But Greed and Politics (and the Politics of Greed) are literally killing actual people (as opposed to the rich and politicians).
Re: Spicer. Fair enough!
I second your, "Greed" diagnosis. The facts clearly point that direction, but so much obfuscation from pundits and pols already jockeying for re election and a media addicted to creating drama for clicks.
So in effect, the recent drop in the price of gas is because the oil companies got a little less greedy?
John, I'm fairly certain your question is disingenuous and undeserving of being address, but what the hey: So simplified, yes they are less greedy. Might be due to pressures applied elsewhere, influence and yes perhaps supply and demand do have a minor effect too. You simply can't argue with the record, record, record profits Big Oil and Gas are reporting, as required by law, to their shareholders. I feel certain that if they could hide how greedy they were being they would. Cowboy Capitalism is Greedy - feed the greed. Which of the 7 deadly sins is that?
It was a straightforward question, and your answer spoke volumes. Thanks.
volumes? I look at this forum as a respectful platform to exchange ideas and differences. I can go to twitter for cryptic quips. So, you're saying you agree with me then. Thank you.
It is worth bearing in mind that inflation creates winners as well as losers. Consider the case of a guy who is paying one third of his monthly income on his mortgage. As long as his salary or his pension has COLAs, given enough inflation he winds up paying only a fourth of his income for that purpose. Obviously he's a winner. But without COLAs he's of course a loser.
And there’s us old farts on fixed incomes 🥵
Regardless of the literal cause of salary increases (COLA seems to have limited application in this regard; maybe some specific industries, the "of which" of which, I do not know) (What was I saying? I got lost in my own little bit of minuscule wit. Oh, yes!), if you get income increases while your mortgage rate stays the same, yes, you do benefit from inflation. (And I'm not an economist, either.)
--------------------
My comment is admittedly not profound. The true reason I'm posting here is to ask if we're talking about Balzac or Saroyan, or someone else, in relation to the Human Comedy?
Regards,
(($; -)}™
Gozo
[8/6/2022: Edited to capitalize some literary titles in my last line.]