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Windriven's avatar

Certainty is the opiate of fools. There are only degrees of probability. Some assertions have very high degrees of probability. Most fall lower on the scale.

Take the approach that scientists use. Compare the assertion you are evaluating with available *objective* evidence. If there is objective evidence that contradicts the assertion, the assertion is wrong. Period. No special pleadings. See the philosopher Karl Popper's work on falsification.

Start from the position that the assertion that you are evaluating is wrong. Look for *objective* evidence that challenges the assertion. As soon as you find that evidence your job is done, the probability that the assertion is true is zero. If a diligent search does not reveal such evidence it doesn't mean that the assertion is true, only that it isn't false. You can then assign a probability that the assertion is true based on the evidence you have found that supports the assertion. As evidence in favor of the assertion mounts you can adjust the probability that it is true upward but it will never reach 100% - certainty. And as soon as a single piece of *objective* evidence refuting the assertion appears, then the assertion is false. Period. It is then the asserter's responsibility to offer a new assertion (if he or she can) that accommodates all of the available evidence.

There are rafts of logical errors that one may encounter in pursuing this strategy and a comprehensive examination of these is far beyond the scope of a comment. So I will leave you with an observation from a brilliant physicist named Richard Feynman, "The first principal is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool." Here he is talking about confirmation bias, our propensity to accept assertions that confirm what we already embrace. Or as Paul Simon put it, "Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest."

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Fred Basset's avatar

Truth has been exiled. I say good riddance. She is a heartless bitch who doesn't care if she hurts feelings, goes against things you hold dear, or suggests that your situation is the result of decisions you made. I ran into truth this morning in the bathroom. I stood on the scale and she showed up. She had the gall to suggest that I make some lifestyle and dietary changes. Truth looked haggard. She has been exiled to a cold and dark place. She blamed it on not getting enough clicks so that E.D. drugs and furniture you put together yourself would be sold. I told her she was wrong. It was her own fault for not validating enough feelings and being more positive. I can't remember the last time truth gave me a belly rub and told me I was a good boy. I know how to deal with truth. With just a few mouse clicks or screen taps I can find a veritable Baskin Robins of "truths" that validates everything I hold dear, confirms my suspicions about "them", and gives me a nice dopamine hit. Truth is lonely and hungry because she isn't being sought out or fed.

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