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I agree, Matt. Orange Julius Trump will be taken out by Marcus Brutus DeSantis. Not in the Senate, but probably in Iowa or New Hampshire near the Ides of January.

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“But Trump is not Charlie Crist – and he is still beating DeSantis by 30 points in 2024 primary polls.”

Update: Latest YouGov poll has DeSantis over Trump, 42-35

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author

Maybe there's a real turn here. But we thought that after 1/6, too. Which was just a little more severe than Dr. Oz losing a midterm election. And as I predicted, there's already signs that The Rebellion isn't as strong as was billed in the excitement of this one news cycle. Here's Politico this very morning on how the Trump backlash might already be fading:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2022/11/12/the-trump-backlash-might-already-be-fading-00066608?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f117-dd93-ad7f-f9175e210001&nlid=630318

Also, the vast national public still hasn't been subjected to Ron DeSantis's personality. And after seven years of suckling on a cult of personality, here's the dirty truth about DeSantis: he doesn't have much of one. Don't discount that. It's not like anybody cares about issues anymore.

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According to the Politico potpourri of reactions you linked to, it’s the opinion of the usual windbags that it was the GOP’s failure to address the issues that, as much as Trump, caused a tsunami to turn into a trickle. I wouldn’t disagree. Nor would I argue that DeSantis is the methadone that will wean the Trump junkies. All I’m saying is that after so many missed opportunities to kick the habit, too much losing may be the first sign that withdrawal is possible.

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Matt,

First, thanks for taking all those slings, arrows and “balls” comments. If they are busy with you, they leave us alone.

Second, No Roll, just SLACK, TIDE. Just the Imperative Mood, encouraging the TIDE to SLACK.

Third, for colors I was thinking we could appropriate the TIDE Detergent Logo and go with Red and Yellow with Blue letters.

Finally, DeSantis he has a track record as a Governor and a Congressman. Trump was a Real Estate developer and a Reality TV Show Host. DeSantis graduated from Yale and Harvard Law. He served six years in the Navy and was the Legal Advisor to Seal Team One before being deployed to Iraq. He is 44. Trump is 76. The Tide is Turning, not Slacking.

Peggy Noonan in today’s Wall Street Journal:

“Mr. Trump is already essentially trying to blackmail the governor—“I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife.” Mr. DeSantis has wisely refrained from responding.

He should continue holding his fire, not try to laugh it off or respond in kind. He should concentrate on governing and reaching out. If he decides to run, at that point he should answer—in a cool and deadly way, not a personal way. A way that acknowledges Mr. Trump was a breakthrough figure, changed the party in some healthy ways, but got lost in obsessions and bitterness, in petty feuds—in an All About Me-ness that came at the expense of policy and party. All About Me is a losing game, because politics is all about us.”

Gov. DeSantis can hire one of The Flying Wendellas as a campaign advisor.

Love your style and appreciate your talent,

Bob Kellam

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I think DeSantis is on the spectrum.

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Thanks, Bob! And I don't dispute that DeSantis should hold off on getting into the mud-wrestling pit with DJT as long as possible. And not just because he probably loses that match. (He's not as quick, he's not as funny, and he's not as committed to humiliating his opponent as Tangerine Jesus is.) Staying silent also has the additional benefit of driving Trump crazy, or crazier, I should say. He can't stand being ignored worse than he can't stand being insulted. But if you're going to style yourself as Populist Avenger Lite, which DeSantis has, very much deliberately in Trump's image, you're going to have to lock horns with him sooner or later. If you wanna kill daddy, you have to kill daddy. You can't just hope he dies of old age. At least not before 2024.

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When he finally does come at the king, he best not miss.

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The Peggy Noonan column is, as usual, a well-written, intelligent assessment of the election results, and the implications of what path is chosen moving forward.

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Perhaps the outcome of this election will finally show all those Trump supporters/apologists and especially his ever-obedient, sycophant, lieutenant politicians, that hitching your wagon to the endless Trump lunacy is a high-speed ticket to loserville! And, while we're dreaming, perhaps that same block of unhinged Trump supporting voters/politicians will also realize that the conservative voter and our pipe-dream ideology of small government and fiscal constraint will never be served unless and until a thoughtful, intelligent, articulate, pragmatic, non-narcissus, non-conspiracy theory Conservative party leader emerges to lead the way. Alas, those few who would likely be best for such an assignment are understandably not interested in such masochist pursuits.

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Matt, I like yelling “SLACK, TIDE” like the Alabama cheer as I read your substack. What are our team colors?

I think Trump is a looser, a political looser in 2020, a popular vote looser in 2016 and now as a political anointer. His anointment gives off a smell. I agree he is 30% +10% of the GOP and now the 10% is gone and some of the 30% will quietly drift away. Until we GOP folks get that Trump smell off of us, we will struggle. He won’t go away, so I do think DeSantis will have to “slay” him in the 2024 primaries. By that I mean defeat him strongly and clearly in the primaries. I think DeSantis will do the “rope-a-dope” like Ali in Manila until the primaries. Trump will end up acting like Andy Griffith in the final scene of “A Face in the Crowd.”

A Chicago Golfer,

Bob Kellam

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I like the sound of "Roll Slack Tide!," Alabama-style. Perhaps a contradiction in terms, but we can make it work. To answer your question, our team colors are black'n'blue. As I've taken some abuse today, from the fake sign-ups from people trying to injure me for poking fun at Trump/DeSantis, who log in under emails like "myballsinyourmomsmouth@compuserve.com."

Kids are cruel. And I'm not going to pass their sentiments on to my mom. It wouldn't be fair to her.

As for your DeSantis's rope-a-dope theory? Maybe you're right. Maybe he's more clever and disciplined than I give him credit for. And maybe he'll out-fox Trump. Would be happy to see him do so, even if I don't care for him personally. But as Mike Tyson used to say: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." DeSantis has never really been in the ring with Trump, who not only doesn't observe the rules, he doesn't even know what they are. If DeSantis climbs into the squared circle, he's about to get punched in the mouth a lot. And DeSantis has to run against Trump, after styling himself as a mini-Trump, without alienating Trump's voters. That is a tightrope walk, to put it mildly.

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I won't defend his personal actions, like forsaking his wife who had cancer. His *legislative* achievements were, by my measure, beneficial to the country.

He wasn't alone. Remember Wilbur Mills, Chmn of House Ways and Means? I think he and Fannie Fox somehow were in a fountain in D C together. Actually, he was a reasonably good steward of the taxpayers' money.

I care about their performance in office. That is why the Orange Buffoon falls short. He did some good things, but his personal shortcomings (!) way overwhelmed most of the good things his leadership actually did.

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Just curious - was intentionally inflicting psychological torture on children to disincentivize southern border migration one of his shortcomings or one of his good leaderly things?

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Newt? Orange one? If the latter, I would solidly place the blame on the children's parents who decided to break US law. Does being a child give your parents carte blanche to break the law? If you think that the children's position of being pawns immunizes them from our laws, then we have a fundamental disagreement.

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“It’s on the parents”. And that, my friends, is why I will never again be a conservative Republican, especially on fiscal issues. The only thing worse is a ... (thought better of saying what I was going to as the web is rife with those types). Children have no choice. That is why I am pro life and pro aid to children and families. Yup, paid for with my tax money even and yours.

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I think that psychological torture of children is a bit of an extreme response to a misdemeanor offense but that’s me.

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Harsh, but it's on the parents.

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Stupid parents. Should have just left their kids with Refugee Daycare ‘R Us. Or better yet had the foresight to be Cuban instead of Central American. Definitely deserved to have their kids abused.

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“bullet-headed-seditionist-dildo“. That’s the best description of Mastriano I’ve heard all election season. I’m from PA & can’t understand his campaign strategy. Did he really think God was going to deliver the victory to him? Securing the nomination & not campaigning beyond that seems like a disservice to the people who nominated him in the first place.

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Thanks, Chris. I don't think God would approve of my description. It wasn't very Christian of me. And I'm kind of ashamed of that. But in my defense, it was an accurate characterization. So truth has to count for something. My philosophy: sin first, ask forgiveness later. The Circle of Life.

And congratulations on dodging The Bullet. (Headed-Seditionist-Dildo.)

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DeSantis is more dangerous than Trump, because he has a brain & vocabulary greater than 300 words.

A fascist with two Ivy League degrees is still a fascist.

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I don’t think his act is going to play well outside of FL. His focus on cultural issues rather than governing won’t play well in the rest of the country.

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Trump has a floor of about 30% of the GOP and -- at best -- had a ceiling of around 40% of the GOP. That's why people still care about him. He leads a cult of personality and that makes him kind of a kingmaker still. If someone told me in 2016 that I'd be voting straight Democrat tickets in 2022 I would've laughed. But here we are.

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Nice take on Keri Fake by Cecily Strong. Thanks, Matt.

Almost has me wishing I could vote for her. Ms. Strong, not Ms. Flake. (Sorry, Jeff. Havin' a little trouble with names today. No offense toward Cheryl intended. But I'm sure the good folks out there in Western Florida know the difference.)

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Jeff Flake probably just stabbed his own hand if he read that.

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Well, his skill with a blade is a bit suspect. Lots of folks said he stabbed Trump in the back, and that guy's still walking around as well.

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Unfortunately, common sense is in short supply in the House. Trump the Gump has turned both parties into raisin-brains.

I miss Newt.

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Newt is more loathsome than Trump, because he knows better.

He’s a sociopath.

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Wow! I still respect him for coming up with rhe Contract for America.

All our politicians have feet of clay. But if I were Dante, I would place The Great Orange Ego in the innermost circle of Hell.

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Newt was his own version of scum. Shut down the country because he had to get off Air Force One with the media instead of the main ramp. A petty mind indeed.

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And was nailing the help at the time.

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A pessimist is never disappointed I guess, but before you draw too many conclusions from those head-to-head polls on Trump vs DeSantis, I’d wait for some post-election polling. Meanwhile, a more sober view of DeSantis’s thumping of Crist is in order. Trump wouldn’t have won without Hillary, and I think at least some of DeSanti’s 19 point margin has to be owed to Crist.

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Unfortunately, Florida has drifted so red it was either Crist or half a bag of Cool Ranch Doritos and the Doritos were reluctant to run.

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Gotta agree with you Matt. Actually, happy to agree with you. Politics is the best grift that Trump ever found. Even better than getting paid to pretend to be an astute businessman on TV. He gives voice to America's id, or at least American rednecks' id, and people throw money at him just for his asking.

Even if you detest Trump you have to admit that the man can read a crowd and entertain it. DeSantis on the other hand is about as entertaining as toenail fungus and not not nearly as lovable. He'll stay away if Trump runs because he'd be competing for Trump's voters and Trump will ridicule him mercilessly. That, of course, would tarnish his image among the core group that keeps him in Tallahassee. And he might be smart enough to figure out that if Trump can't win a national election with Trump voters then DeSantis ain't going to win it with them either and he has done nothing to expand his appeal beyond people who wear drool cups and MAGGOT caps. Better to be a big fish in a small swamp than Ron Who?

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So, Matt-a-palooza. My 23 year old daughter asked me how I felt about the election results and if we should prepare to take the Oregon trail to another country splashing in the Democracy kiddy pool.

I asked her for a couple of days to suss it out before we broke bread over the topic.

Here's the pile of turds I'm currently sitting on. I'm over the shock of the actual number or reptile brained, human like meat sacks, that a Republic based on Democratic principles, allows to punch a chit, color in a dot, or scratch an itch. I know the sane out number the insane and the, "I don't give two sh!ts about my responsibilities as a citizen of Democracy, so I don't vote - unless it's at the end of the Wendy's drive through."

However, I'm still wondering if the Power-Over, Hungry Puppet Masters have rigged the slots. Michigan proved that if you don't partisan Gerrymander the majority voice can be heard & $56 Million (most of it dark money) to buy a Senate seat and you can still loose? Damn Bro! I want to live in a Democracy and I was hoping these midterms would show me if that was on this slab-O-oil-covering turf we call the U. S. of A.

Matt, did I just buy the Democrats messaging that this election was about keeping Democracy alive or am I right, Democracy is still on the ropes?

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"I'm over the shock of the actual number or reptile brained, human like meat sacks..."

50% of people are dumber than the average person. It's true. You could look it up! Best I can tell a Texas sh1tload of them live in the red-colored states on Politico's map.

More food for thought is that if that ethically bereft coward McCarthy (no, not Joe, no, not Charlie, Kevin) loses his bid for the Speaker's gavel, the next two in line are Dumb and Dumber from the great state of Louisiana where in the election just passed the state couldn't drum up enough votes to take slavery off the books. Yee-hah y'all!

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Oregon Trail 1 Vote, I see.

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For me the Trail ends in Trieste.

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Can't be bothered with Trump and the election analysis, sorry. That was already two days ago.

Instead I read your Fall Guy essay, thinking, "What is Matt going to say about that insufferable douche, Thoreau? Can't wait to join in the corpse-kicking."

See, I read "On Golden Pond" or "A Walk in the Woods," or whatever the eff Thoreau called his fake fan-fiction travelogue, and hated it. I was reminded of that unpleasant episode a few weeks ago when my 17-year-old (the gimlet-eyed realist who announced he was an atheist at 14 because he had read all the arguments and they were "flimsy at best, if not downright absurd") came home from school complaining about Walden and how crappy it was. "The guy is a rich hypocrite who's pretending to camp, but sneaks home whenever he needs to. Plus, he contradicts himself in the space of a single paragraph. The rest is pablum." (The 17-year-old has always had a great vocabulary.) I told him I wholeheartedly agreed, but maybe it would be wise to fake it for the grade? "What, and be like Thoreau?" (His path in life will be different than mine, but it will be honest.)

But your essay didn't go there. And the parts you quoted from Thoreau's elegiac essay were beautiful and kind of how I think about the world ("when men, with their boasted faith in immortality, will lie down as gracefully and as ripe, – with such an Indian-summer serenity will shed their bodies, as they do their hair and nails."). Plus, I miss the New England fall.

So I'll read Autumnal Tints when I get a chance. Even if Thoreau is an insufferable douche.

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Damn, Ray, you're hard on Thoreau! Though I'm glad you came around, sort of. Hope you (and your son - who had it right that HDT slid home a lot as convenient) go easier on Emerson, his landlord. A harder man, with an illuminative plan. That man knew him some life. And death. Emerson literally dug up his own dead wife's casket just to see her, he was so stricken by grief. Top that with your Harry Potter!

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founding

The difference is, Emerson is the real deal. I'll encourage the brassbound 17-year-old to read Self-Reliance. (It be interesting to get his opinion of the "foolish consistency" line, particularly the "little minds" rejoinder.)

And by the way, he EXCORIATES Harry Potter. His point is, if you're going to create an alternative world, it has to be internally consistent and coherent, which Hogwarts is decidedly not. He contrasts it with The Expanse, a series of books written by James Corey, which, of course, I'd never heard of.

But I'll read Autumnal Tints. We'll see.

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Meanwhile, my kids are watching fat kids fall off bikes on YouTube. You're making me insecure.

Re: Autumnal Tints, I already broke out a lot of the best parts. It's a slim book.

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founding

No need to feel insecure. My 15-year-old, who is allergic to books, is watching the same YouTube videos. And who knows what on TikTok. But he has a super cute girlfriend and a ton of friends. I talk books and philosophy with the 17-year-old. I waterski and wake surf with the 15-year-old. It’s all good.

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I have to say I admire your 17 year old—even if you might have slipped a few words in his mouth. Insufferable douche is about right.

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founding

Fair suspicion, but no. He spent his toddler years listening to NPR in the car and reads obsessively, on all topics. If you care to listen, he can explain blockchain, combustion engines, the chemical process by which hummingbirds don't get tired (hint: they don't have lactic acid), how difficult it is to get satellites into a stable orbit, etc. (Until schooled otherwise, I just assumed that if you shot a satellite high enough, it would just get sucked into some kind of orbital current.) It's exhausting for my wife.

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I watched a NOVA program that was basically “Blockchain For Dummies” and about all I learned was that this funny money consumes 1% of the world’s electricity. The rest was about computers and numbers, kryptonite to aging English majors. I still drive an internal combustion engine pickup, however, so I hope your son’s knowledge of how they work doesn’t become an antiquarian interest.

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I think a more appropriate track here would be Depeche Mode’s “Master and Servant”.

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